White Sox vs Mariners Odds | MLB Prediction & Pick
| Chicago White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+205 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -105 |
| Seattle Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-250 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 -125 |
With back-to-back wins over the White Sox, the Mariners have stretched their lead atop the AL West to 6 1/2 games entering Wednesday.
The Mariners are heavy favorites over the Sox once again on Wednesday, as Bryce Miller (3.81 ERA, 75 2/3 IP) will take on rookie Jonathan Cannon (5.94 ERA, 16 2/3 IP) at T-Mobile Park.
White Sox vs Mariners odds have the Mariners as -250 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-105o / -115u). Find my betting prediction and pick for the third game of this series in my MLB Betting preview below.
Chicago White Sox
Jonathan Cannon is considered Chicago's No. 11 prospect, according to MLB pipeline, and will be offered his fourth opportunity to start an MLB game in this matchup. He last worked Friday versus the Red Sox, throwing three scoreless innings while allowing three hits.
In a small sample size of 16 1/3 innings, Cannon owns an xFIP of 3.33 and an xERA of 4.89 at the big league level. He owns a K/BB ratio of 4.25. Pitching metrics rate out in his favor, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 99, and a Location+ rating of 105.
While the White Sox lineup was always going to struggle this season, they have battled horrid luck in terms of injuries. They still feature a lengthy injured list, including Eloy Jimenez, Tommy Pham and Yoan Moncada. Their lineup has struggled to a wRC+ of 87 over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .654.
However, they have been quietly excellent versus left-handed pitching, and feature particularly notable lefty-righty splits. They hold a wRC+ of 79 versus right-handed pitching over the last month, and have struck-out 25.6% of the time.
Seattle Mariners
It's been a solid sophomore campaign thus far for Bryce Miller, who features an electric fastball and plus ratings on all three of his pitches. His talent is well reflected by a Stuff+ of 112 — he owns a strong Location+ of 102 as well.
He has pitched to an xERA of 4.34 and an xFIP of 3.80, though he has slightly more hard contact of late. He has been hard hit 47% of the time over his last five outings, with an xBA of .270 while striking out just 18% of batters.
Miller has fared significantly better inside the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile park, where he owns a 2.13 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings.
The Mariners own league-average results versus right-handed pitching over the last month. They own a wRC+ of 99 and an OPS of .674. They have a BB/K of only 0.36 in that span, which ranks 21st — it's the worst of any team in playoff position. They have struck-out 25.3% of the time, which is the fourth-highest mark.
Over the entirety of the season, the Mariners have a 27.8% whiff rate (fourth highest in MLB), and an in-zone contact percentage of 79.7% (fourth lowest in MLB).
White Sox vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Mariners obviously hold some notable advantages in this matchup, but a price of -245 looks to compensate them and then some. There are some things to like about Cannon, and offensively the Mariners have not been world beaters by any means.
There are better spots to back huge favorites, and I think the most value lies with Cannon's strikeout prop.
It seems reasonable to expect Cannon to go five innings here in most reasonable game scripts. He pitched three innings of long relief last time out, and he should be stretched out enough to go deep if he has a decent outing. He owns a 9.2 K/9, and gets a great matchup to continue racking up Ks.
There is value betting Cannon to strike out five or more at +120, and it's also worth sprinkling on him to record six and seven.
Pick: Jonathan Cannon Over 4.5 Strikeouts +120 at Bet365 (Play to +115)
