White Sox vs. Orioles Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +104 | 9 -110 / -110 | +205 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 9 -110 / -110 | -250 |
The Baltimore Orioles will look to build upon their dominant 40-25 mark at home as heavy favorites Monday against the Chicago White Sox.
In a matchup of Grayson Rodriguez (5.38 ERA, 87 IP) versus struggling righty Michael Kopech (4.95 ERA, 120 IP), the Orioles are priced as -245 favorites.
Chicago White Sox
Kopech will look to build upon what was his best outing in weeks versus the Mariners. Prior to an early exit due to leg cramps, he had allowed just one hit and zero earned runs through four innings.
Kopech has struggled to an ERA of 7.15 across 34 innings since the All-Star break, with a WHIP of 1.82. He owns an xERA of 5.73 on the season and an xFIP of 5.63. His stuff continues to rate well (109 Stuff+), but his propensity to leave balls out over the plate has led to a HR/9 rate of 2.10. His Location+ mark sits at 92.
Kopech's lack of command has also led to a 15% BB-rate and a ton of favorable counts to opposing batters. Kopech has also struggled in two-strike counts; his 12 home runs allowed from two-strike counts is the second-highest mark in baseball.
Compounding Kopech's BB concern is the fact that baserunners have consistently stolen bases versus the righty. Kopech has allowed 40 stolen bases since last season, which is the second-highest mark in baseball.
In 62 2/3 innings against right-handed batters this season, Kopech has allowed a .438 SLG rate and .362 wOBA. Since the 2021 season, righties have chased just 26% of Kopech pitches out of the zone, which is the fifth-lowest mark in baseball.
The White Sox bullpen has struggled to a 5.33 ERA over the last 30 days with an xFIP of 4.73. Their 4.77 ERA on the season ranks fifth worst in MLB.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have been far less potent in splits versus right-handed pitchers this season, but that problem has not applied to switch-hitter Anthony Santander. Santander has hit to a .499 SLG rate and .814 OPS in 384 PAs versus right-handed pitching this season.
His .448 xSLG rate versus the fastball is his best mark versus any variety of pitch, and Kopech has thrown his four seamer 62.3% of the time. Santander is also slugging .634 on breaking pitches from righties specifically this season.
Santander enters this matchup in solid form, having slugged .514 in August. He has missed on just 7% of swings over the last two weeks, which is the best mark in MLB during that span.
He also owns drastically better numbers in splits specific to Camden Yards this season. He is slugging .521 at home, which is the eighth-best mark in baseball.
White Sox vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are few indications that the Orioles shouldn't pay off this favorable spot with a win, but the current moneyline price of of -245 has moved outside of the playable range. Their team total currently sits at 5.5 juiced to the over, and if anything I would still be arguing a bet on the over at -125.
Santander is a particularly strong target to take advantage of Kopech, and it's hard for me to see why his over 1.5 total bases prop is priced as high as +130 on a day where he should get four ABs. Santander has crushed right-handed pitching, owns his best expected numbers versus the fastball and has been in steady form recently.
A bet on Santander over 1.5 total bases is my favorite way to fade Kopech and a poor Sox bullpen Monday at Camden.
Pick: Anthony Santander Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 (Bet365)
