The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
Here are my Australia vs Czechia Picks and WBC prediction for Thursday, March 5.
Australia vs Czechia Picks
My projection essentially aligns with the total for Thursday night's game between Australia (1-0) and Czechia (0-1). Some books have put out an 8.5 on the total juiced to the Over, while others have hung a flat 9 (-110 either side at Caesars) or juiced that number to the Under (-120 at DraftKings), compared to my projected line of 8.7. While I would consider betting an Under 9 around -110, compared to my fair odds of around -120, it would be a smaller play, if anything.
I do project a slight moneyline edge on the underdog, Czechia, with odds near 20%, compared to DraftKings' +600 (14.3% implied). However, to reiterate the point I made above, given the minimal data for teams like Brazil or Czechia, I feel my model is fairly conservative in estimating their true floor.
Still, my model likes Czechia to keep this game closer than the runline (4.5) indicates, which correlates both with their chances of winning outright, or at least keeping the game Under nine runs; and I show a larger edge on their spread (projected +4.5, -173) compared to listed odds nearer to a coinflip.
As a result, while I'm still uncertain and less confident in my projection for the bottom-tier teams in this tournament, who lack sufficient data to accurately forecast their true talent level, I do think there is enough alpha in an inflated runline to place a bet.
Take Czechia +4.5 runs, up to -140 (a five percent edge compared to my projected number). I'll downsize the play slightly due to reduced confidence, and with a potentially loaded Friday card in the works.
Zerillo's WBC Prediction for March 5
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- Czechia +4.5 Runs (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings; bet to -140
