Yankees vs Angels Odds & Prediction
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-195 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | -1.5 -125 |
| Los Angeles Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+162 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | +1.5 +105 |
The American League-leading Yankees continue their road trip with a three-game set against the Angels at Angel Stadium. The Tuesday series opener will see Nestor Cortes (3.29 ERA, 65 2/3 IP) take on Griffin Canning (5.05 ERA, 51 2/3 IP).
Yankees vs Angels odds have the Yankees as -195 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 (-125o / +105u). Find my Yankees vs Angels prediction — a F5/full-game moneyline parlay — below.
New York Yankees
The Yankees own the best run differential in baseball (+92) and also boast the top expected record (38-17). Additionally, they own the highest road winning percentage in the AL at 19-10 (.655).
Those types of numbers typically mean a team is slightly overvalued in the betting markets, as odds are the Yankees are never going to look as entirely dominant as they are at this point in time. Still, their underlying profile is quite impressive.
Their team hard-hit rate remains comparable to last season at 41.2% (fifth in MLB). What has been significantly improved though is their discipline at the plate and contact rates.
The Yankees out-of-zone swing rate is down to 25.2%, the second-lowest mark in baseball. Their out-of-zone swing-and-miss percentage is down 6.8% and is the fourth-lowest mark in baseball. Their in zone swing-and-miss percentage has also reduced by 2.6%. Their in-zone contact rate is up 2.9% and ranks ninth in baseball at 82.9%.
The Yankees have been specifically dominant against right-handed pitching. Their 128 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the best mark in baseball, as is their 0.48 BB/K ratio.
Cortes owns a 2.85 xERA and a 3.96 xFIP. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 98 and a Pitching+ rating of 103.
Los Angeles Angels
Canning makes for a particularly appealing target against the Yankees red-hot lineup. The 28-year-old righty has struggled to a 5.05 xERA and a 5.15 xFIP.
His stuff rates out quite poorly as he owns a Stuff+ mark of 87. He also owns a Location+ of only 97.
Canning has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph this season, which is the third highest among qualified starters. He has allowed an OBP of .288 in two-strike counts this season, which is the ninth-highest mark among qualified starters.
The Angels offense has quietly been excellent versus left-handed pitching as they own a wRC+ of 120.
Yankees vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
Cortes has been the better of these starters by a wide a margin and his strong underlying profile suggests that will remain the case moving forward. The Yankees have been the best offense in the league against right-handed pitching and have beat up on some much tougher righties than Canning of late.
The Yankees' price to cover the F5 run-line (-0.5) looks a little short at -130, and playing that by itself is an option. The Yankees bullpen has also been incredible lately and is in good shape after an off-day yesterday. Therefore, betting the Yankees to win the first five and the game at -105 is my favorite way of attacking this matchup.
Pick: New York Yankees F5/Game Moneyline Parlay -105 (Bet365, Play to -110)
