Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -175 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +145 |
A heated AL East series between the rival New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays concludes Thursday night at Rogers Centre.
Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the mound for the Yankees looking to improve on what has been a disappointing start to the season. Cortes has pitched to a 5.53 ERA in 42 1/3 innings. Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios has not been markedly better, with a 4.70 ERA in 46 innings.
Continue reading my Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview below for analysis and a player prop pick.
New York Yankees
After pitching to a stellar 2.44 ERA and 2.70 ERA in 2022, Cortes has taken a considerable step backwards this season.
He owns an ERA of 5.53, and a 3.93 xERA which does make the case that alarming ERA has come with a ton of poor luck. His xFIP has dipped all the way down to 5.17, compared to 3.63 a season ago. Cortes xSLG rate has gone from a strong clip at .320 a season ago, and become a considerable flaw at .401.
Right-handed batters in particular have been hitting Cortes well. Righties are slugging .489 with a .357 wOBA.
Opponents are hitting .455 against Cortes when going through the lineup for a third time. That could be concerning today in a spot where the Yankees would love to see him work at least six innings.
Toronto Blue Jays
Offensively, Bo Bichette continues to be a huge story for the Blue Jays. He leads the league with 58 hits, and his .319 batting average ranks second only to Yandy Diaz.
Bichette has hit left-handed pitching very effectively this season, and will be in favorable splits versus Cortes. Bichette has slugged .543 with an .894 OPS against lefties.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
Bichette has hit Cortes quite well historically. Considering each of their respective splits this season, it seems likely that will continue Thursday.
Bichette could have five chances to do damage at the plate in this matchup where Toronto should hit well as a team. It's a juiced number for a total bases prop, but I still believe we have value on Bichette at -115 to record over two total bases.
Pick: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) |
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