Yankees vs Brewers Odds | Moneyline Prediction
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | -135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | +114 |
The Milwaukee Brewers traded their ace Corbin Burnes before the season started, but that hasn’t stopped the Brew Crew from starting the season 16-8. Coming off an eight-game road trip in which they went 6-2, the Brewers return home to American Family Field for a three-game set against the New York Yankees.
New York got off to a torrid start, beginning the year 10-2, but is just 7-7 since and coming off a series split against the Athletics. The Yankees' bats — specifically, Aaron Judge — have gone a bit cold and they have fallen into a tie for the AL East lead with the Baltimore Orioles.
Below, I’ll break down my Yankees vs Brewers odds and make a moneyline prediction for the series opener on Friday.
New York Yankees
Luis Gil has a ton of talent but has made just 11 major league appearances over the last four years. After he made his MLB debut in August 2021, Tommy John surgery cost him a majority of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Through four starts this year, Gil has a 2.75 ERA and is coming off his best career start, striking out nine batters while allowing just two hits in 5 2/3 innings. He was expected to start the year in the minors, but injuries gave him another chance to make the Opening Day roster, and his dominant spring earned him the job.
Gil has all the stuff to be an elite pitcher. His fastball averages 97 mph and he has a lethal changeup. He has altered his pitch mix to utilize his changeup more, throwing it 23% of the time this season, compared to just 6% before the injury. The results have paid dividends, as opponents have managed just one hit against it.
The one issue Gil really has to improve is his control. He has walked an absurd 17 batters through just four starts. He ranks in at least the 90th percentile of all pitchers in xERA, xBA, K%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. But he has one of the worst walk rates in the entire league.
New York’s offense started the year red hot but has since gone a bit cold. On the season, the Yankees still rank eighth in the league in wRC+, but they sit just 16th over the last two weeks and 25th over the last seven days.
Aaron Judge is in a massive slump. He is batting just .186 on the season and has four home runs. The good news is Juan Soto has been as advertised. He’s batting .316 with six home runs and 22 RBI. Their other offseason acquisition, Alex Verdugo, is also hitting the ball really well for New York.
Milwaukee Brewers
It has been a roller coaster career for Colin Rea, who is coming off the best season of his career. After being drafted by the Padres, he was traded to the Marlins, traded back to the Padres, released by the Padres, signed by the Cubs, released by the Cubs, signed with Fukuoka in Japan, left Japan, signed with the Brewers in 2021, returned to Japan and then re-signed with the Brewers organization before the 2023 season.
Last year, Rea made 26 appearances with a 4.55 ERA and 4.42 xERA. There is nothing special about him and he is nothing more than a backend starter to fill innings. He ranked in the bottom half of the league in nearly every category last season.
This season has been good at first glance, but look out. Rea is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA through four starts. Pretty good, right? Not when you see his 6.13 xERA and .384 xwOBA, or the fact that opponents have a 39.7% Hard-Hit rate against Rea.
Rea uses a six-pitch mix but mainly uses his sinker, cutter, fastball and sweeper. His sinker and cutter are his most frequent pitches, and he throws each more than 25% of the time. They have both been smoked. Opponents are hitting .409 against his cutter this year.
Milwaukee’s offense might be one of the biggest stories so far this season. The Brewers rank fifth in the league in wRC+ and fourth in wOBA.
William Contreras is crushing the ball, leading an offense that has been hitting for power and average. They have the third-most home runs, led by Contreras and Rhys Hoskins. Brice Turang is batting .321 in his breakout sophomore campaign and Willy Adames is off to a great start too.
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Yankees vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oh boy, is the regression train going to hit Rea hard. His 6.13 xERA tells a vastly different story than his current 2.08 ERA. He has allowed 22 hits and yielded just five earned runs. Rea has managed just 14 strikeouts and doesn’t have the ability to miss bats. Not missing bats is a problem when opponents have a 39.7 Hard-Hit% and 91.3 average exit velocity.
Gil has elite stuff and his reworked pitch mix with increased changeup usage is really working. His Baseball Savant profile is that of an elite pitcher, ranking in the top 10% of the league in xERA, xBA, K%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
He is coming off his best career start, when he allowed just two hits while striking out nine batters. If he could just find a way to limit the walks, Gil has the stuff to be something special.
The Yankees offense has slowed down, but a pitcher who allows as much hard contact as Rea could be exactly what they need to break out of their slump. If that regression hits, New York could open the floodgates.
I’ll take New York as a small favorite and nervously hope Gil doesn’t issue too many free passes here.
