Yankees vs. Cardinals Game 2 Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +108 | 9.5 -102 /-120 | +1.5 -172 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -126 | 9.5 -102 /-120 | -1.5 +142 |
Game 2 Notes:
Matthew Liberatore's low whiff rates and zone rates on the fastball are quite alarming, and the bullpen usage of the Cardinals in the first game could put them in a difficult spot for game two. Liberatore hasn't been able to get righties out, nor has he been able to go deep into games as a result.
The Yankees bullpen is elite and top five in stuff, FIP and ERA, which will give them a likely consistent pitching edge in Game 2 of this doubleheader.
I'd look to play New York.
Pick: Yankees ML (+108) |
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Editor's Note: The Yankees vs. Cardinals analysis beyond this point was for Game 1.
The Yankees and Cardinals weekend series began with a postponement on Friday night due to inclement weather, leaving the two underachieving teams to play a doubleheader on Saturday afternoon and evening in St. Louis.
The Yankees opted to push Gerrit Cole from his originally scheduled Saturday start into the Sunday one, and will start Luis Severino in the first game on Saturday.
The Cardinals chose to keep Jack Flaherty pitching early on Saturday and will throw rookie lefty Matthew Liberatore against the Yankees' bullpen in game two.
The market for the second game isn't up yet as of this writing, and is difficult to price without knowing exactly which of the Yankees' relievers will be available for the second game.
With that being said, betting value lies in game one of two in my view, based on your opinion of Severino's current quality.
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New York Yankees
The Yankees finished the month of June without Aaron Judge as the third worst offense in all of baseball. They had a 79 wRC+ as a unit and paired that with the lowest on-base percentage in the month. An excellent offensive series against the Athletics helped them climb out of dead-last offensively in June.
Some of their slumping hitters are showing signs of progress toward their rest of season projections, but this is still a lineup that's starting three waiver claims in the outfield, a rookie at shortstop who's struggled to adjust to the big leagues thus far and featured replacement-level production at third base.
Then there's the question of Severino, who has been an enigma in the last month.
He had excellent outings against the Reds and Padres to begin his season, but the loss in fastball velocity for multiple starts led to some implosions. Severino allowed seven runs to the Dodgers, four to the White Sox and six to the Mets in a span of three starts.
In none of those outings did he throw hard enough with the fastball to miss bats and he failed to pitch more than five innings in all of them.
This was a sign of a potential mechanics issue or injury. His fastball velocity has rebounded in the last two starts and although his results were poor against Boston, the underlying velocity and strikeouts mostly returned.
If Severino is sitting 97-98 with his fastball velocity (vFA), then he's certainly better than his season-long 19% strikeout rate would suggest.
Severino can't be priced near the ace-level pitcher he was at times in the past, but he's also much better than the 6.51 xERA would suggest. His rest of season projections from The BAT are also mediocre, but I think that presents a great opportunity to buy Severino at a discount with the velocity return.
St. Louis Cardinals
Like Severino, Flaherty has had puzzling outings in an enigmatic June. He's allowed 12 earned runs in the last two starts and the walks have come and gone throughout the course of the entire month. His season-long walk rate is still above 10% — which makes him barely passable as a starter in terms of command.
The Stuff+ profile on Flaherty shows that the fastball velocity has returned and as a result, he's getting more whiffs with it in the last month (prior to the last two starts). His Stuff+ on his fastball for the season is just 88, clearly below average. In the last month though it's 92, a sign of some improvement, even if modest.
Rest of season projections for Flaherty still have him for a 4.57 ERA (The BAT), even with less than a strikeout per inning built into the numbers now.
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Yankees vs. Cardinals Betting Pick
As much as the weather is conducive to offense on Saturday afternoon in St. Louis, this total has been bet up too high in my view. The projections systems are down on both starters because of recent results being poor, but Severino and Flaherty have both seen improved fastball velocity and these two bullpens remain in the upper half of the league overall.
The Yankees' bullpen is especially elite and well-rested following a light week of work against Oakland, followed by an off day on Friday due to the rain.
Temperatures in the 90s with an 8-10 mph wind out will help offensive production, but not enough to get over the key number of nine.
Pick: Under 9 (-110) |
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