The Yankees are staring down the barrel of a disheartening sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the World Series, but Tuesday's Game 4 should at least offer some hope for a good game given the nature of the pitching matchup.
With runs expected in a game pitched by Luis Gil and a patchwork group of Dodgers relievers in a bullpen game, which hitters can we target in World Series Game 4?
Let's get into my Yankees vs Dodgers parlay for Game 4 on Tuesday, Oct. 29.
Yankees vs Dodgers Parlay for World Series Game 4
- Will Smith 2+ Total Bases (+165)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Walks (-150)
- Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 Hits (-125)
Parlay Odds: +575 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Will Smith has been the unluckiest man in this series, coming up with just one hit in 11 at-bats despite owning a .319 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and .645 Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) over the course of the three games.
While the matchup with Gil, a "power" pitcher who yields a ton of fly balls, isn't the easiest one for Smith, the good news is that in such a critical game I don't expect the right-hander to stick around for very long, particularly since he matches up incredibly poorly against L.A.
That's great news, considering those expected metrics are weighed almost entirely by Smith's plate appearances after the third inning — coming against the bullpen arms he'll see here.
Smith has a hit in each of the Dodgers' two clinching games this postseason, including a home run, and last year he racked up three hits when they faced elimination in Game 3 of the NLDS. He rises to the occasion in these spots, and with the way he's been clubbing the ball he's well overdue for a big knock.
The reason Gil matches up poorly with the Dodgers is the fact that he walked over 12% of the batters he faced this season, hunting strikeouts and missing the mark plenty of times as he looks to nibble.
L.A. is an expertly disciplined team that has taken walks at nearly a 12% clip this postseason despite struggling to do so in this series, and its strikeout rate continues to sit at a very low mark (under 16%) against the Yankees.
There should be a few walks to be found here, and I'm looking to Shohei Ohtani to come up with one. He's been the only Dodgers bat walking with any sort of consistency in this series, and he's recorded a walk in all but one of his last nine games — totaling 11 over that time.
We saw Ohtani be a bit reluctant to swing the bat on Monday after he suffered a shoulder injury in Game 2, so with an extra-conservative approach in a wondrous matchup, he should get home on this line.
Finally, I'll take a nibble on a pleasant price here and back Alex Verdugo to pick up another hit in this series. He's done so in two of the three games played between these teams, and for the series he has been one of the unluckier Yankees with a .257 xBA, which has come in 57 points higher than his actual .200 average.
Against right-handers this postseason, he's posted a stellar .289 xBA — and with just two lefties in the Dodgers bullpen, both of whom worked on Tuesday — he should have plenty of chances to hit off right-handed pitching tonight.
I realize the price is reflective of Verdugo's position in the order, but even batting near — or at — the bottom of the lineup he's still come to the plate four times in all but one game in these playoffs.
