The New York Yankees will roll out right-hander Clarke Schmidt for Game 3 of the 2024 World Series on Monday at Yankee Stadium, while the Los Angeles Dodgers will counter with right-hander Walker Buehler.
Both starting pitchers feature prominently in my World Series parlay for Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3. Find my three-leg SGP for Monday night below.
World Series Parlay: Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3
- Walker Buehler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170)
- Clarke Schmidt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)
- Yankees ML (-144)
Parlay Odds: +321 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
I will jump at any situational opportunity to fade Walker Buehler, and we have one of those on Monday evening against New York's powerhouse offense. Buehler has not been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery, posting a 1-6 record in the regular season with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally poor, as the right-hander ranked in the bottom fifth of the league in both xERA and xBA. Things have gone from bad to worse in the postseason, where Buehler has posted an 0-1 record with a 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through two starts.
Specifically, we are going to fade Los Angeles' starting pitcher in the prop market, as Buehler finished the regular season in the 16th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in nine of his past 13 starts.
At the same time, we are going to back Clarke Schmidt in the same market. While Buehler's biggest weakness is his inability to retire hitters via strikeout, the inverse is true for Schmidt.
This season, the right-hander ranked in the 79th percentile in whiff rate and 74th percentile in strikeout rate. Schmidt utilized this ability to record a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 16 regular season starts.
His strikeout prop is also listed at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in 13 of his past 16 starts.
Only three Los Angeles hitters have faced Schmidt prior to Monday: Enrique Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani. Enrique is 1-7 with three strikeouts, Teoscar is 0-3 with a strikeout, and Ohtani is 1-3 with two strikeouts. That is good for a 46.2% strikeout rate between those three hitters.
If we are fading Buehler while simultaneously backing Schmidt, then a correlated outcome would be for the Yankees to win this game. Despite trailing 2-0 in the series, New York is listed at -144 to prevail in this game, and for good reason.
The starting pitching edge clearly goes to the Yankees. Schmidt outranks Buehler in wins, ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate. Furthermore, the Dodgers have to travel to the east coast and face a difficult New York environment. The Yankees possess a 60% win rate over their past 25 home games and have won three of their four playoff home games this postseason.
It's been nearly two weeks since New York has played in front of its home crowd, which I expect to play a factor in a game where it also possesses the clear starting pitching advantage.
