Yankees vs Orioles Odds
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 9 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -185 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 9 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +150 |
With the Baltimore Orioles losing their weekend series to the Oakland Athletics, the New York Yankees were able to regain the lead in the AL East standings entering Monday. Coming off a series win against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Yankees are a game ahead of the Orioles as they begin a four-game set at Camden Yards.
The Orioles opened as -135 moneyline favorites on Monday with Grayson Rodriguez on the mound. Let’s break down my Yankees vs Orioles prediction for tonight's series opener between New York and Baltimore.
New York Yankees
Yankees fans have been waiting for Clarke Schmidt to put it all together and break out for the last five years. The former first-round pick has battled injuries and inconsistency. He had success working out of the bullpen in 2022 and then served as a full-time starter for the first time last year and posted a 4.64 ERA in 32 starts.
So far this season, Schmidt has a 3.55 ERA in five starts. He has held opponents to just one earned run in two of his last three starts. Schmidt’s 4.55 xERA is a full run higher than his ERA and he has struggled a bit with his command and allowing hard contact.
The key for Schmidt is getting him out of the game after five innings. He has allowed just three total runs through the first five innings all season but has allowed seven runs in the sixth inning of games.
New York’s offense has exploded for 15 runs in each of the last two games. Aaron Judge broke out of his “slump” by clobbering a home run in each game. The Bronx Bombers have hit 15 home runs over the last week, the most in the league.
Juan Soto is the betting favorite to take home the AL MVP in his first season with the Yankees. He is batting .318 with a .998 OPS. He leads the league in walks, as usual, and has hit seven home runs. He ranks third in WAR and has a 196 wRC+.
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Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles' big righthander hasn’t been as dominant in his sophomore campaign as many anticipated. After tweaking his pitch mix halfway through last season, Rodriguez was excellent to finish the year. Over the second half of the season, he posted a 2.58 ERA and 2.76 FIP, the third-best mark in the league over that stretch.
In five starts this season, Rodriguez is 3-1 with a 4.45 ERA. He has allowed at least two runs in each of his last four starts, however, his numbers are a bit inflated by a blowup start in his last outing when he surrendered seven runs against the Angels.
The hard-throwing Rodriguez averaged 96.4 miles per hour with his fastball and has risen his K/9 rate to 10.80 this season. When he isn’t striking guys out though, he has allowed an average exit velocity above 90 and has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate.
Rodriguez has a great changeup and has gotten unlucky with it early in the year. But his fastball has been crushed to a .384 average and definitely needs to improve.
Young talent is the story of this Baltimore team. While the Holliday season isn’t upon us quite yet, the Gunnar Henderson show is off and running. Henderson is batting .370 with a 1.204 OPS over the last two weeks. He is second in the MLB in WAR.
Henderson currently has the third-best odds to win the AL MVP. Colton Cowser is the current betting favorite for Rookie of the Year. The 5th overall pick in 2021 is hitting .310 with a 1.037 OPS. He has shown great ability to hit for contact and power. The young stars have helped Baltimore rank third in the league in wOBA and wRC+ this year.
Yankees vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given Schmidt’s inconsistency and expected metrics (4.58 xERA, .339 xwOBA) I am going to back the more talented pitcher in Rodriguez.
Rodriguez still has an elite changeup, which is a pitch the Yankees hitters have really struggled with, ranking just 26th in the league against changeups this season.
Baltimore has a lineup packed with young studs. Henderson and Rutschman are already MVP candidates and Cowser and Jordan Westburg have burst onto the scene this season.
The Orioles rank third in the league in wRC+ and wOBA this season and rank second over the last two weeks. Even if you consider the lineups a wash given the Yankees' current form, I’ll back the pitcher with more upside in this matchup.
Play Baltimore -116 and down to -130.
