Yankees vs. Padres Odds, Pick
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +150 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -185 |
The Yankees will begin their nine-game west trip as American League leaders.
They have the lowest team ERA in baseball (2.86), which includes strong outings from Friday's starting pitcher, Carlos Rodon (3.27).
The Padres returned home from a successful 5-2 east coast road trip on Thursday and currently sit in the final NL Wildcard spot. They are slight underdogs in this matchup with Yu Darvish on the mound, who has bounced back from a middling 2023 campaign with a 2.08 ERA.
Read on for our Yankees vs Padres Pick, including MLB Odds and Predictions for Friday, May 24.
New York Yankees
The Yankees offense enters this matchup in great form with a league-leading 140 wRC+ over the past month.
They smacked around an elite Mariners pitching staff in the series prior to this one and smashed two excellent Twins starters effectively last week in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez.
The Yankees are the best lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching by a wide margin (128 wRC+). They own a league-leading 0.52 BB/K and a 32% hard-hit rate.
Juan Soto has set the tone for a more disciplined approach at the plate. The Yankees' out-of-zone swing-and-miss percentage has improved by 7.1% year over year, now the third-best mark in the league. Their in-zone swing-and-miss rate has also improved by 2.1%, now the tenth-best mark in the league. Their whiff rate has also improved by 4.1%, now the seventh lowest in baseball.
Rodon has pitched to a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his past three starts. However, he's been hit hard in those matchups, with a 46% hard-hit rate and .259 expected batting average allowed.
Rodon's expected ERA is 4.90, inflated by a 91.4 mph average exit velocity, the second-highest mark among qualified starters.
San Diego Padres
It's especially frustrating to see Xander Bogaerts go down with injury given how solid the rest of the lineup looks with Luis Arraez in the mix.
The Padres boast a 107 wRC+ over the past month and a 105 wRC+ over the past fortnight.
Arraez enters this matchup riding an absurd eight-game multi-hit streak, with 20 hits in 38 at-bats.
Darvish enters this matchup following two dominant outings versus the Braves and Dodgers. He's dropped his expected ERA to 2.81 and expected FIP to 3.54. He's improved his HR/FB ratio by almost 10 percentage points year over year (from 13.5% to 4.1%).
However, his Stuff+ marks are down considerably, from 112 last season to 98 this year.
Yankees vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Padres present a difficult challenge for Rodon, who has outperformed his expected rates this season, especially in recent outings.
It seems likely that San Diego's offense can stay hot in this series opener.
But I'm not counting on Darvish dominating versus a red-hot Yankees lineup.
The Yankees have been the best lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching. While Darvish looks to be a better pitcher year over year, it still seems hard to expect the 37-year-old's incredible recent level to hold with what appears to be a comparable arsenal.
The Yankees lineup has shown tremendous plate discipline against the side, and I think that strength could be crucial in this matchup versus Darvish.
The total is low because of the way both starters have pitched to this point, but I think the market is underselling these two offenses.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105, Bet365) | Play to 7.5 (-110)
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