The Yankees will look for a better performance in game two of their series at Tropicana Field against the Rays. They dropped the opener by two runs.
A pair of soft-tossing veteran righties, Marcus Stroman and Zach Eflin, will oppose each other on the mound as the Rays look to hand the Yankees another defeat.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Rays MLB Parlay: Wednesday SGP (July 10)
- Yankees ML (-108)
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
- Marcus Stroman Over 2.5 Walks (+130)
Parlay Odds: +700 (DraftKings)
Yankees ML (-108)
The Yankees can't lose forever, right?
Well, they've been the worst team in baseball over the past month after leading the sport in wins for the first couple of months. Seemingly, nothing can go right for the Bronx Bombers. Whether it's untimely plays in the field, hard-hit balls landing in gloves, or bullpen implosions, the Yankees now trail the Orioles by three games for the AL East lead.
But I'm banking on the Yankees chipping into that deficit with a Wednesday win.
Although the Rays' offense has improved in the last month, they still average around four runs per game. Randy Arozarena's improvements have helped the Rays. Since June 9th, Arozarena has been hitting .274 with a team-leading 141 wRC+.
Sure, many will fade the Yankees since Marcus Stroman is pitching, and that's fair considering how poorly he pitched against the Reds, allowing five runs in five innings and a trifecta of homers. Stroman hasn't done anything well this year, his 3.58 ERA appears to be fool gold according to his 5.15 FIP, and his Savant profile is nothing to get excited about.
But Stroman's 83rd-percentile ground-ball rate means he's just one well-executed sinker away from escaping a jam. The one positive for Stroman is his home/road pitching splits. He sports an ugly 4.59 ERA at the hitter-friendly Yankee stadium, compared to 2.54 on the road, with 13 of his 15 homers coming at home. I'm generally looking to back Stroman when he's on the road, as he hasn't figured out the short Yankee stadium dimensions.
Moreover, the Yankees will eventually hit once Aaron Judge and Juan Soto go on a scorched-earth run again. Early on, people were discussing this duo as one of the all-time great hitting duos, and now some Yankee fans wonder if they should off-load Soto for capital at the deadline. Calm down, people.
Soto and Judge will hit like they always have. Judge has been batting .222 in the past week, and Soto has been below the Mendoza line in the past two weeks. When two of the five best hitters in the world struggle, the Yankees don't win much — shocker. That won't last much longer.
The Yankees need to hit Zack Eflin, who's neutralized their bats over the years to a 1.40 ERA in over 40 career innings. Eflin should fetch an enticing package in a few weeks when the Rays likely deal him, so this is a genuine audition for contending teams searching for a dependable innings eater. He enters play with a 4.14 ERA with an FIP below 3.80, but he's allowed four-plus runs in three of his past four outings.
I see Eflin's struggles continuing here as the Yankees' two-game losing skid comes to a close at the hands of a stud lefty bat.
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Elite hitters can break slumps with one swing, and Juan Soto is as elite as it gets. To close out Tuesday's loss, Soto roped a 106 mph, 406-foot flyout into the glove of Jose Siri, and the frustration from Soto was palpable.
I'd imagine Soto won't sleep well on Tuesday and is eager to step into the box with a vengeance on the mind.
The soon-to-be second-highest-paid player in baseball is hitting just .196 over the past two weeks. Sure, that can cause concern for some, but Eflin boasts the lowest walk rate in baseball (0.78 walks per nine innings), so Soto will get pitches to hit. Soto should be able to convert one of Eflin's strikes into an extra-base hit or a pair of singles.
That, combined with Soto's pricing being on the lower side for him — +105 for 2+ total bases — makes this a must-add to the SGP.
Marcus Stroman Over 2.5 Walks (+130)
The biggest issue for Stroman in his debut season for the Yankees is walks. He's issuing free passes at the second-highest rate in baseball — only behind his teammate, Luis Gil.
Stroman's 4.02 BB/9 is the highest of his lengthy career by far. He's battled control issues and often nibbles around the zone trying to steal called strikes. He's walked at least three batters in seven of his 18 starts this year, but the Rays' patience (ninth highest walk rate in MLB) should lead to some free baserunners.
I typically don't bother with walks-allowed props unless the pitcher is incredibly wild, like Stroman — or if the opposition is elite at drawing walks. Both factors ring true in this matchup, so Stroman Over 2.5 walks at +120 odds is a solid way to finish this SGP.
