Yankees vs Twins Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday 6/6)
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-148 | 8 -118o / -102u | -1.5 +130 |
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+124 | 8 -118o / -102u | +1.5 -155 |
The New York Yankees are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak as they host the Minnesota Twins for the final match of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium. New York took the first two games and is hunting for the sweep.
The Yankees are 44-19, which tied for the best record in baseball entering Thursday. Minnesota is having a solid season at 33-28, but it trails Cleveland by 7 1/2 games in the AL Central race.
Yankees vs Twins odds have the Yankees as -148 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-118o / -102u). Find my Yankees vs Twins prediction in my MLB betting guide below.
New York Yankees
Marcus Stroman has a solid 2.73 ERA but a 4.32 expected ERA and a 4.44 SIERA. The righty has recorded only 55 strikeouts in 69 innings, ranking in the 30th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate.
Stroman also has struggled with allowing walks and hard contact, ranking below average in both categories. Out of 73 pitchers with 65 innings, Stroman ranks 78th in Stuff+ and 70th in Location+.
He's always been good at forcing ground balls. He's forcing a 52% rate this season, which ranks in the 85th percentile of qualified pitchers — although it is a career-worst mark.
The Bronx Bombers have been the best lineup in MLB this year, and they've been red-hot lately. They lead the league in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, and fWAR. They are also second in ISO and SLG, with the sixth-lowest strikeout rate.
The Yankees hit the ball exceptionally hard as well. They rank fourth in hard-hit rate, third in average exit velocity, and first in barrel rate.
Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez will take the mound for the Twins tonight. Despite his 4.84 ERA through 12 starts, he has been pitching well, with a 2.99 xERA and 3.02 SIERA, which better represent his level of pitching.
Lopez ranks in the 92nd percentile among qualified pitchers in walk rate and 78th percentile in strikeout rate. His Stuff+ numbers are around league average, but he has better-than-average location metrics, so he ranks 25th among arms in Pitching+.
Lopez has struggled this season with allowing barrels, ranking in the 42nd percentile in barrel rate. Still, he ranks above average in hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed.
The Yankees are a tough out, and Lopez needs to avoid allowing too many barrels against the lineup. But he's a solid pitcher who should hang tough.
Minnesota's lineup is very average, ranking 15th in wOBA and 14th in wRC+. The Twins also rank around the middle of the pack in most batted-ball metrics.
Yankees vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Marcus Stroman is a ground ball ace.
Unfortunately for him, the Twins’ offense boasts MLB's third-lowest ground-ball rate.
The Yankees are a juggernaut. I think that Lopez is among the more dependable starting pitchers in the AL, but New York is a brutal matchup.
Ultimately, both pitchers will have a shot at a quality start, but they should both allow a few runs.
For that reason, my favorite play in this game is for both teams to score two or more runs in the first five innings at +170.
Pick: Both Teams to Score 2+ Runs in F5 Innings (+170)
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