Kings vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - March 6, 2025

Via @kylemurray03

Pass the Prop best bet

The Nuggets face off against the Kings in a matchup where Jokic should absolutely smash. Jokic is averaging 52.1 PRA this season and it’s possible he sees an uptick in Usage if Aaron Gordon (ankle) is ruled out for this one. The Kings don’t have Sabonis for this matchup and will rely on Jonas Valanciunas on the interior. Jokic has simply cooked that ass. Earlier this season when they played Washington, Jokic put up 80 PRA against Valanciunas. In 10 games H2H with Val since 2021, he is averaging 59 PRA and exceeded this line in 8/10 games. While there’s obviously some more nuance to it than that, the Kings will have no real way to slow down Jokic as an offensive threat or as a rebounder. Jokic himself is on the report so if he sits it’s just a void but I’m expecting a big game from the Joker.

This is a solid spot to fade the Kings who have won 4 games in a row now – but let’s take a look at the winning streak: 1 game where Kyrie tore his ACL, 1 game vs the Hornets and 1 game vs the Jazz. Not exactly justification for this team to suddenly compete against the Nuggets. Denver, as always, has been very good laying small numbers at home (10-5 ATS this season). The loss of Sabonis will show more in this one with Jokic on the other side. Fading teams on a 4+ game win streak that are road dogs is also a profitable betting strategy: 55-23-2 ATS (70%) run.