Pacers vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - March 1, 2025

Can play this on FanDuel at -136 but I’m playing on Sleeper. Andrew Wiggins is out but I don’t think that impacts Mitchell’s rebounding anyway. He’s averaging 1.9 rebounds over 4.3 rebound chances per game with Miami. Projections have him at 1.98 rebounds and this is one of those sick bets you just make, close your eyes and hope he sees 4 rebound chances and doesn’t convert on 75% of them.

71% hit rate when he plays 20-33 minutes, projecting 27 mins tn. His minutes have been ramping up post ASB, he played 33 mins vs Denver, then dealt with 1H foul trouble against Toronto, where he only played 9.9 1H mins vs his previous 15.8, 16, 14.2 & 16.1 mins L4 games. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays 30+ mins. From a matchup perspective, the Heat allow the 6th most catch & shoot FGM L15, which is Nesmith’s #1 scoring play type, with a 36.7% frequency. Think the books are discounting his minutes & he has had solid history against this Heat team, lets cash Nesmith 😈 Would play 9.5 points as an alternative‼️