The Dallas Mavericks (6-7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (11-2) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in OKC. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Thunder -5.5), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -220 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 17.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
I have a slight lean toward Dallas at +5.5, as my model makes it closer to a six-point underdog.
Moneyline
If you're looking to swing for the fences, the Mavericks are an intriguing option, as the Thunder's Chet Holmgren remains sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Over/Under
My model has the total as the best value in this matchup, with a total projection that's closer to 220 points.
My Pick: Under 229.5
Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 229.5 -110 / -110 | +180 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 229.5 -110 / -110 | -220 |
- Mavericks vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -5.5
- Mavericks vs. Thunder over/under: 229.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Thunder moneyline: Thunder -220, Mavericks +180
Mavericks vs. Thunder Preview
Dallas and Oklahoma City (OKC) will meet for the first time since the Western Conference semifinals when the Mavericks shocked the top-seeded Thunder en route to an NBA Finals appearance.
However, OKC was arguably a year ahead of schedule, considering it went 57-25 and smashed its projected win total of 44.5 games. After announcing themselves as legitimate contenders for an NBA title, bookmakers had no choice but to open the Thunder's win total this season at around 53.5.
With an 11-2 start, OKC is already showing the previous campaign was anything but a fluke.
As for the Mavericks, their 6-7 start is a bit of a concern, given the talent they have on the roster. They bolstered their ranks during the offseason by adding Klay Thompson to partner with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Although Doncic and Irving are averaging at least 24 points per game, they probably need a bit more from Thompson, as his 14.3 points would mark his lowest scoring output since his rookie season. But to be fair, Thompson's 12.5 shot attempts per game is also the second-lowest in his career.
If we use ESPN's Relative Percent Index to assess the Mavericks' expected win-loss record, Dallas should be closer to a 7-5 team. That projection also aligns with the TeamRankings metric that evaluates which teams have had a higher luck factor in their games. Their data shows that Dallas has been the third unluckiest team this season, with a -2.1 value.
Moreover, if you look at how the Mavericks have performed in clutch games, where the score is within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining in the game or overtime, Dallas is tied for the worst winning percentage (.143) with a 1-6 mark. Last season, the Mavericks posted the second-best winning percentage (.719) in clutch games to finish 23-9.
While it's clear that some things are just out of your control when it comes to luck, the Mavericks have to find a way to change the narrative, and it might have to start on the defensive end of the floor.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction
Although Dallas is the sixth-best team in defensive efficiency, its ranking plummets to 28th during the clutch minutes of a game. I'd have to think that Mavericks' head coach, Jason Kidd, is well aware of his team's struggles when the game is still in the balance.
One thing you can control on the basketball court is your defensive effort, as even a marginal improvement could be vital in triggering a Mavericks turnaround. Saturday's victory over San Antonio could provide that spark, considering the Mavericks held the Spurs to just 93 points.
Sunday's matchup against the Thunder features two teams ranked in the top six defensively. The Mavericks need to start stringing some wins together, and if there's such a thing as a statement game in mid-November, I expect the Mavericks to meet the moment with their defense.
Best Bet: Under 229.5 (-110, bet365)
Mavericks vs. Thunder Betting Trends
