The NBA regular season is back in action with a stacked slate of games on Monday night, with a total of 11 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for four of tonight's contests, including bets for Knicks vs Pelicans, Pacers vs Rockets, Mavericks vs Trail Blazers, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, December 29.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Monday, December 29
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Knicks vs. Pelicans
Back the Knicks at home, fade the Knicks on the road. The formula is pretty simple.
The Knicks are 3-10 ATS on the road this season, with an ATS differential of -3.2.
They’re without Mitchell Robinson, whose offensive rebounds fuel their possession advantage. They’re also without Miles McBride. Without Deuce, the Knicks are 3-9 ATS this season.
The Pelicans had played much better as of late, until the Cavaliers and Suns smacked them in back-to-back-to-back games.
Still, New Orleans has a little bit of fight in it, though missing Herb Jones will matter against the Knicks’ combo of Jalen Brunson and Wing Stop.
Without Robinson and McBride, I make this Pelicans +1.3 which feels light, but it also gives us eight full points of differential from the spread.
The Knicks have only played one game this season on the road as double-digit favorites (-9.5 or more), against the Nets in late November (they won and covered).
I’m docking the Pelicans five points for Jones and Alvarado and still make this spread significantly inside the number.
The Pelicans are 12-7-1 ATS at home this season.
Without Robinson underneath, I’m expecting Derik Queen to have a big game, and for the Pelicans to not get annihilated on the offensive glass while grabbing a few of their own (Pels are 9th in offensive rebound rate).
Pick: Pelicans +9
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Pacers vs. Rockets
I get it, it’s a lot of points to lay. But Houston has been great in this spot. The Rockets are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites at home this season.
We’re catching Indiana on a downswing. They have a -14.8 ATS differential in their last three games. Read that again. Not game margin. ATS margin.
Houston, on the other hand, makes its bread on killing these types of teams.
The Pacers have no center, not a real one anyway, and are 18th in defensive rebound rate. That’s not what you want against Houston, who basically subsists on offensive rebounds.
A fun trend: Ime Udoka is 60% ATS coming off a win that went under, with the idea being that as long as his team’s defense is playing well, he tends to cover.
Houston is 15-7 ATS when facing the same team twice in the same week after winning the first game with both games at home.
The Pacers are an above-league-average team in points in the paint per game. Houston is terrific defending the rim, so it's no surprise they are 11-6 ATS this season against those teams.
Pick: Rockets -14
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Timberwolves vs. Bulls
Minnesota is 3-8 ATS as a road favorite this season, so that’s not great. However, nine of those 11 games came against Western Conference opponents. Against East teams? 2-0 SU and ATS.
Chicago is 6-1 ATS as a home 'dog this season, but most of those wins came against inferior teams before their power ratings were adjusted.
This is a half-court vs. transition matchup. If the Wolves let the Bulls run, they’ll be in trouble. That’s a big edge for Chicago in efficiency. But Minnesota is elite offensively and defensively in half-court, while Chicago is in the bottom-11 in both.
Chicago is also 28th in opponent turnover rate, so they won’t generate as many transition chances.
I think this number is too short; I make the spread double digits, so I’ll count on the Wolves to bounce back in this spot.
Pick: Timberwolves -6
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Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers
The Mavericks had a brief moment where they could score. That time is over, and they are back to throwing bricks in trashcans blindfolded.
Without Anthony Davis (out with a groin injury), the under is 11-6 this season for Dallas. That’s compared to 9-7 to the over when he plays.
I make this total 228.5. The Blazers tend to go over after an under game (last game went under), but the Mavs' offense is so poor, and the Blazers rely on their transition offense, which Dallas is elite at defending.
The Mavs’ perimeter defense is full of big wing defenders who can challenge Deni Avdija and slow down his efficiency.
This Dallas offense is truly horrendous, and their overs have been the product of both luck and matchup.
I’ll bank on this being an ugly, off-kilter affair.
Pick: Under 232.5
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