The New York Knicks (2-0) and Cleveland Cavaliers (0-2) will meet in Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals this Saturday. Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland is set for 8:00 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on ABC.
The Cavs are 3.5-point home favorites over the Knicks in Game 3 tonight, with the over/under set at 215.5 total points. Cleveland is a -148 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New York is priced at +124 to pull off the road upset and take a commanding three-game lead.
Let's get into my Knicks vs. Cavaliers Game 3 predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, May 23.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Odds for Game 3
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
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Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 Predictions
New York is Due for a Loss
I think this series is essentially over. I've already accepted the fact that the Knicks are going to the Finals.
Teams that have homecourt and go up 2-0 in the conference finals are 60-6 all-time via WhoWins.com.
The Knicks have things they can clean up, but their sheer talent advantage has been on full display in the first two games of this series.
However, there’s also this to consider: are the Knicks really the type of the team we expect to rattle off 10 or 11 straight playoff wins?
New York's magical postseason run is due to hit a bump in the road sometime soon, even if it doesn't totally knock them off course.
Cleveland's Problems are Fixable
The reality is the Cavaliers now have to beat a tougher, smarter, and more talented team than Detroit (who the Cavs also trailed 2-0) in four of the next five games. I simply don’t believe that will happen.
However, are the Cavs really so much worse than the Hawks, who took two games from the Knicks in the first round, even if those games were coin flips?
Cleveland has been good at home, going 6-1 in the playoffs so far. However, they do have a negative ATS differential at home.
The Cavs had terrible shot variance in Game 2. I don’t really care about that; there’s no guarantee it will or won’t regress in the next game, and no data to suggest a trend.
However, the way they ran offense did lead to a lot of quality looks. Their biggest problem wasn’t in the offensive design; it was the execution. I’m not just talking about shooting either, although that was obviously bad.
James Harden was hitting reads wide and high, which slowed the extra passes and allowed the Knicks to rotate. The Cavs looked like they would rather drive into nothingness than find the right sequence of kicks. These are fixable things.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Picks for Game 3
Cavaliers -3.5 (-108)
Despite the bleak series outlook, the historical trends strongly support a standard Game 3 response from the home team. Teams that go up 2-0 are just 26-40 straight up in Game 3.
Furthermore, home favorites down 0-2 regardless of round are 64-31 straight up and 55-38-2 (59%) ATS in Game 3 since 2003, via KillerSports.com. They are an impressive 9-4 SU and ATS in the conference finals.
I think this series will be tied at 2-2 going back to New York, and then the Knicks wrap it up by winning Games 5 and 6. But for starters, I’ll take the Cavs -3.5 in Game 3 tonight.
Over 215.5 (-110)
Overs are 18-8 since the start of the second round and 15-2 in the last 17 playoff games overall.
The over in Cavs playoff home games is also 5-2 this postseason, making Over 214 a highly actionable target.
The script for this game is pretty simple: either the Cavs’ offense kicks it into gear and runs up a big number while New York continues to score, or the Knicks absolutely blister the Cavs with a dominant “the series is over” type of game and score 120+ points on their own.
Either way, it’s an over spot.
Neither team can really prevent the other from getting up threes; Cleveland has the highest 3-point rate in the second round and fourth-highest in the postseason. Maybe they just continue to miss every shot, but history says the role players probably make more.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are comfortable with the shots they’re taking. I can’t see the Cavs doing anything to make them uncomfortable; their defense simply isn’t good enough to do so, and Kenny Atkinson is going to continue playing Sam Merrill in multi-guard lineups that expose their defense.
Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (-102)
The books refuse to adjust to the fact that Cleveland is a highly favorable matchup for Mikal Bridges. The Cavs' defensive schemes tend to leave him open, and he is comfortable attacking against their wings.
Cleveland doesn't have a defensive option with any chance of making Bridges uncomfortable besides Keon Ellis, who has been unplayable for Cleveland lately.
Dean Wade Over 4.5 Rebounds & Assists (-158)
Dean Wade has gone over this line in both games in this series and four of the last five.
All the data says the Cavs are good when Wade plays, and Jalen Brunson is worse. Brunson is just 3-of-7 vs. Wade via NBA.com’s admittedly wonky matchup data.
So he’ll play, even though the Cavs will just allow Brunson to get the switch onto Harden and then flambe the Beard.
Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
Evan Mobley has gone over this line in four of his last five games and has settled into a good rhythm.
It’s also a shot that defenses surrender routinely, collapsing on drives by Donovan Mitchell or Harden and leaving Mobley open on the perimeter.
Sam Merrill Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-196)
The juice is steep here; you can bump it to 2.5 3PM at plus-money if you want.
Merrill went 0-of-7 in Game 2 (noted as Game 3 in the original live script). The key is that he continues to get minutes.
Kenny Atkinson will not give up on Merrill, no matter how much the data says he needs to bench him in this matchup, and if he plays, he’ll shoot threes, and role players shoot better at home.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 Best Bets
- Cavaliers -3.5 (-105)
- Over 215.5 (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (-102)
- Dean Wade Over 4.5 Rebounds & Assists (-158)
- Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
- Sam Merrill Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-196)
