The Denver Nuggets (3-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3) will face off in a winner-take-all Game 7 to close the second round of the NBA Playoffs this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread, with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -340 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +270 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 18.
Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction for Game 7
My Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 7 best bet is on the Under, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 214.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs Thunder Odds, Picks for Sunday, May 18
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 214.5 -111o / -110u | +270 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 214.5 -111o / -110u | -340 |
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -8.5
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 214.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +270, Thunder -340
- Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet:Under 214.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs Thunder NBA Playoffs Game 7 Preview
The trick with Game 7s is that they have bent rapidly towards the road underdogs in recent years.
Home favorites in Game 7 after the first round are:
- 59% SU and 47% ATS since 2002-03.
- 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS since 2014-15.
- 2-7 SU and ATS since 2019 (including several in the bubble without homecourt).
Now, those numbers improve if the team is more than a possession favorite (-4.5 or more):
- 73% SU and 59% ATS since 2003.
- 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS since 2014-15.
- 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS since 201.
So, being a bigger favorite actually helps quite a bit. Number 1-seeds are 9-5 SU and 6-8 ATS all-time.
The trends support a Thunder win and a Nuggets cover, which goes against most general playoff betting trends that say that the 'dogs who cover win outright, and the favorites who win outright cover. But I still think it’s the best play.
Game 7s are brutal affairs. Everyone’s exhausted mentally and physically. You’ve made every adjustment. You’ve played every card. You have seen the same actions and moves from the same players for two weeks, and you’re sick of it. But, you also know it by heart.
Nikola Jokic knows when they’re going to make the pass to Isaiah Hartenstein in the dunker spot for the floater. Lu Dort knows the angle Jamal Murray is going to take on his dribble handoffs.
That makes it tough to get separation. In the first round, most Game 7s are blowouts. After that, they are ugly, tough affairs.
With Aaron Gordon questionable, I have to downgrade the Nuggets in this spot. Gordon may play, but he’ll be limited in both impact and minutes.
We’ve seen this before where a player tries to play through the strain and just can’t do it. He’s too important for their physicality, defense, and honestly floor spacing.
Nuggets vs Thunder Betting Predictions for Game 7
Under 214.5 (-110)
Unders all day. Road underdogs have gone under their team total in 21 of 34 Game 7s after the first round since 2003.
In the last 10 years, the under is 67% in Game 7s with a home favorite.
The Nuggets' defense has been stronger than their offense in this series, and the Thunder's offense has been worse than Denver’s defense.
Last game was a trendy under spot too and flew over the total with Denver creating turnovers and pushing pace.
The Thunder don’t turn the ball often, but they did last game. That was unlike them. Denver usually does turn the ball over and didn’t as often in that contest.
Teams as home favorites in Game 7 after the first round who averaged fewer turnovers than their opponent saw the under go 16-4. They also won and covered at a high rate, going 14-6 SU and 11-9 ATS.
Both teams will dare open shooters with questionable playoff resumes (Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Christian Braun, Russell Westbrook). That’s what Game 7s are all about: make or miss. But they tend to miss way more often than they make.
Nuggets +8.5 / Thunder Moneyline (+200)
I make this line right around the number in a normal game, but this is not a normal game.
I’m combining Denver +8.5 and Oklahoma City moneyline on a same game parlay at +200.
I’m also playing Thunder -9.5 on an alternate spread at +120.
This is as close to a Thunder moneyline without laying juice as I can find. But if you prefer to just lay the -320 on Oklahoma City, that works too.
Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points (-118) / Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-120)
You know who benefits most from Gordon being out? Jalen Williams.
J-Dub is 5-of-18 from the field for just 12 points in 128 possessions in this series when defended by Gordon.
He got pretty good looks last game and missed them. I think this is a redemption game for Williams.
Nuggets vs Thunder Game 7 Best Bets
- Under 214.5 (-110)
- Nuggets +8.5 / Thunder Moneyline (+200)
- Thunder Alternate Spread -9.5 (+120)
- Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points (-118)
- Jalen William Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-120)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Trends
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