The Phoenix Suns (9-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (10-2) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites on the spread over the Suns (Thunder -7.5), with the over/under set at 226 total points. The Thunder are -330 favorites to win outright, while the Suns are +265 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs Suns predictions and NBA picks for Friday, November 15.
Suns vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
The injury to Kevin Durant is enough to downgrade Phoenix significantly, warranting a play on the Thunder as a -7.5-point favorite.
Moneyline
I see little value in a moneyline wager with current odds at -340 or higher.
Over/Under
Despite having a slight lean to the under, my model's projection of 225.5 points doesn't provide enough of an edge to sanction a play on the total.
My Pick: Thunder -7.5 (-110 at Bet365)
Suns vs. Thunder Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 226 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 226 -110o / -110u | -330 |
- Suns vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -7.5
- Suns vs. Thunder over/under: 226 points
- Suns vs. Thunder moneyline: Thunder -330, Suns +265
Suns vs. Thunder Preview
An injury to Kevin Durant is the one damper for the Suns after jumping out to an 8-1 start. Durant strained his calf in Phoenix's 114-113 road victory over the Mavericks a week ago. Since his absence, the Suns have lost two of three games, with the lone victory coming against a 2-8 Jazz team with the fewest wins in the Western Conference.
After recently losing to Sacramento, the Suns will continue their road trip in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.
OKC is also without a key player, as Chet Holmgren will miss at least two months with a hip fracture. The difference between the Thunder and Suns is that the OKC's roster is much deeper than that of Phoenix's.
The Thunder also have experience playing without Holmgren, given that he sat out his entire first year in the league following a foot injury.
Head coach Mark Daigneault is also known to experiment with a smaller lineup that can be highly effective when called upon to play help defense. The Thunder forced a combined 48 turnovers in its last two games while only committing 18.
Thus, OKC is already adjusting to playing without Holmgren, and its ability to score points off turnovers could be vital to continuing their winning ways.
As for Phoenix, last season was an example of how it can struggle when missing one of its star players. Following their exit from the playoffs, Suns guard Bradley Beal told reporters the season might've looked entirely differently had he not missed so many games.
“In retrospect, we won 49 games,” Beal said. “That’s a lot of games. And I missed what, 30 games, almost? Roughly? Roughly 30 games. Like, that’s a lot of games. We’re a 50-win team.” “Not saying we’d have won every game if I’d have played, but we would be in a totally different position if I’m healthy through the whole year. If everybody’s healthy the whole year.”
2024 might feel like a bit of déjà vu for the Suns as one can only wonder if they have the right mentality to overcome yet another challenge.
Suns vs. Thunder Prediction
Durant is easily the starter the Suns could ill afford to lose, considering his ability to make the offense look almost seamless. The two-time NBA Finals MVP leads the team with 27.3 points per game and boasts a field goal percentage (55.3%) that's the highest among Suns players who average at least 20 minutes per game.
What's most impressive about Durant is that it's not like he's just getting easy putbacks around the rim. The average distance on his shot attempts is 15 feet, which further illuminates his unparalleled skill as a shooter.
No other player in the league who shoots from around the same average distance as Durant has a better field goal percentage than him.
Thus, there's no ready-made placement on the Suns who can fill his shoes.
In addition to laying the points with Oklahoma City, I think it's worthwhile to consider a same-game parlay with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander staying under his rebounds + assists prop of 12.5.
With Holmgren sidelined, Gilgeous-Alexander has an even greater responsibility on both ends of the court. What's intriguing is that he's yet to have a year where he averaged even up to 12 rebounds and assists.
Last season, he failed to go over this number in 60% of his games, and this under is currently on a five-game run. The combination of OKC laying -7.5 with the under in Gilgeous-Alexander's rebounds + assists would yield a 3-to-1 return on our initial stake.
Best Bet: Thunder -7.5
Same Game Parlay (+300): Thunder -7.5 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 12.5 rebounds + assists
