The Oklahoma City Thunder (50-11) and Memphis Grizzlies (38-23) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 8-point favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Thunder -8), with the over/under set at 252.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -325 favorite to win outright, while Memphis sits at +260 to pull off the upset.
Memphis is in a complete free fall, while the Thunder keep rolling. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is unstoppable. Can Memphis pull off the upset, or will Oklahoma City continue bulldozing its way through the West? More importantly, can the Grizzlies cover the spread?
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 5.
Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction
Spread
I like the Thunder -8. If Ja Morant plays, the line is close to accurate, but I don’t like the matchup for the Thunder.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Grizzlies' team total under. They should struggle to score against OKC’s opportunistic and disciplined defense. Memphis hasn’t shown a willingness to attack the interior — one of the few areas where OKC is vulnerable — so I expect the Grizzlies to miss a lot of jump shots.
Props
It may seem like a square play, but this is a great matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander. If the Thunder blow out the Grizzlies, his minutes might take a hit, but with how he’s been playing, he could hit this without fourth-quarter minutes.
Shai Over 33.5 points at DraftKings is the best bet, with a sprinkle on Gilgeous-Alexander 40+ (+255) and 50+ (+1100).
My Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points (-120)
Thunder vs Grizzlies Odds, Lines, Picks
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 252.5 -110o/ -110u | -325 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 252.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies spread: Thunder -8
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies over/under: 252.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies moneyline: Thunder -325, Grizzlies +260
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points (-120)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies NBA Preview
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out indefinitely (week-to-week) with an ankle sprain. Ja Morant is questionable, as are Santi Aldama and Scotty Pippen Jr.
Alex Caruso is out for OKC, while Isaiah Joe is questionable, and they’re good to go otherwise.
Memphis is a 7.5-point 'dog at home. I make this line Grizzlies +6.3 with Morant, but without Jaren Jackson. If Morant's out, I go right to this number at 7.5.
The big problem, so to speak, is Zach Edey. Without Jackson, the Grizzlies will go to Edey next to Brandon Clarke. That means the Thunder will be able to attack the 1-5 pick-and-roll with Edey at center, and that is just absolutely slow-cooked tinga chicken. It shreds instantly.
Do not rule out another 50-burger for Gilgeous-Alexander tonight, given how tough that matchup is, even with great perimeter defenders for Memphis like Jaylen Wells and Desmond Bane on SGA.
Memphis’ offense should struggle here. Jackson has been their best offensive player this season, and Memphis runs more transition offense than any other team, while the Thunder have the fourth-best defense in transition.
The advantage might be with Edey offensively if he can avoid foul trouble, but that requires shifting the Grizzlies’ fast-paced gameplan, something they haven’t been willing to do.
Finally, there’s the turnover problem. Memphis is the second-worst team in points allowed off turnovers per 100 possessions. Guess who leads the league in points off turnovers? That’s right, it’s OKC.
Gilgeous-Alexander, in particular, leads the Thunder in points off turnovers, in part because of his second-highest-league-wide steal rate. Another reason to think this is a huge spot for him.
The Thunder’s only weaknesses are on the defensive glass and putting players on the line. When available, I’ll want the over on Brandon Clarke points plus rebounds props.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Best Bet
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points (-120)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Thunder -7.5
- Grizzlies Team Total Under 122.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points
Parlay Payout: +370
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Betting Trends
