The Oklahoma City Thunder (2-1) and Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2) will face off in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 3-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread, with the over/under set at 219 total points. Oklahoma City is a -155 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +130 to pull off the upset.
The Wolves got their act together and struck back in a big way last game. Neither team has won a road game yet in this series.
Can Minnesota even the series and force the Thunder to adjust? Or will Oklahoma City continue its overall dominance and head back home with a commanding two-game lead?
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Monday, May 26.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction for Western Conference Finals Game 4
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 4 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -3 (-110)
Thunder vs Timberwolves Odds, Picks for Monday, May 26
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | +130 |
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves spread: Thunder -3
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves over/under: 219 total points
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Thunder -155, Timberwolves +130
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves best bet: Thunder -3 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Western Conference Finals Game 4 Preview
The Timberwolves think they played more like themselves last game and finally found counters to Oklahoma City's style of attack.
The Thunder think they didn’t play with the requisite intensity and physicality, and shot badly to boot.
One of them’s definitely right. Both of them might be.
Here’s the series script so far:
- The Thunder played awesome in the first matchup. The Wolves were awful.
- The Thunder played ok in the second game, but the Wolves were awful again.
- The Wolves were awesome last game, and the Thunder were awful.
So, what happens if both teams play awful or awesome in Game 4 tonight?
Let's take a look at some trends.
- Teams down 2-0 who won Game 3 at home are 51-43 SU (54%) and 49-44-1 ATS (50%).
- Home underdogs in Game 4 of the conference finals are 10-6 SU and 12-3 ATS.
The Thunder were unlike themselves last game, it’s true. They were hesitant, confused, and sloppy.
However, the Wolves did force them into it by pressuring the Thunder role players, and playing a more conservative drop coverage against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Thunder vs Timberwolves Game 4 Betting Predictions
Thunder -3 (-110) / Game to Go to Overtime (+1500)
I make the spread for this game Thunder -3.4. So, it’s close. If this line moves to -3.5, it’s a pass for me, but I’ll play the -3.
I think this is a close game that goes down to the wire, with Oklahoma City understanding the chance to end the series effectively, and Minnesota knowing this is likely their last stand.
I’ll also bet on Game 4 to go to overtime at +1500.
Over 219 (-110)
These teams have traded off horrible shooting nights.
The Wolves missed everything in the first two matchups of the series, but are much better at home. The Thunder missed everything last game, and most notably didn’t create turnovers to create easy transition scoring.
Oklahoma City is too good at forcing turnovers not to balance that back out.
The Wolves are too good at perimeter shooting to have another off night in what might be their last home game of the season.
Both teams are struggling against the opponent’s half-court defense.
The best way to counter that is to get out and run before the opponent can set. That speeds up the game and increases the total.
Weird trend: home underdogs in Game 4 of the conference finals have seen the over go 11-5.
I think this is going to be a slugfest with a lot of scoring bursts. That, along with some late-game clutch scoring back and forth should push tonight's game over the total.
Mike Conley Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-115)
Conley is vital in this series, the Wolves’ offense melts down without him.
If the Thunder are going to crash the lane and dare role players to make shots as they have all year, Conley is the one with the confidence and experience to make them.
He went over this line last game, going 2-for-6 from three-point range.
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
Williams has been consistent in this department.
He went under last game despite having eight potential assists in less than 25 minutes.
If the over hits, this will too.
Thunder vs Timberwolves Game 4 Best Bets
- Thunder -3 (-110)
- Over 219 (-110)
- Game to Go to Overtime (+1500)
- Mike Conley Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-115)
- Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
Thunder vs Timberwolves Game 4 Parlay Picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+260)
- Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-225)
Parlay Payout: +350
The Timberwolves are dropping and giving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander space, daring him to take three-pointers and trying to cut off drives. SGA will need to take these to punish that coverage.
He took five three-point attempts in shortened minutes in the blowout last game.
Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards will continue to take pull-up threes, as it stretches out the Thunder' defense and opens things up for Minnesota's offense.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Trends
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
