The Iowa Hawkeyes play the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in Houston, Texas, on Thursday, March 26. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on TBS.
Nebraska is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -126. Meanwhile, Iowa enters as the underdog at +1.5 with a moneyline of +105. The over/under sits at 131.5 total points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction and college basketball picks for Thursday, March 26.
Iowa vs Nebraska Prediction
My Pick: Iowa +1.5
My Iowa vs Nebraska best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs Nebraska Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | -134 |
- Iowa vs Nebraska Spread: Iowa +1.5, Nebraska -1.5
- Iowa vs Nebraska Over/Under: 131.5 Points
- Iowa vs Nebraska Moneyline: Iowa +105, Nebraska -126
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Iowa vs Nebraska College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Iowa gave the people what they wanted, and then some.
The way the Hawkeyes came back after surrendering a 12-point lead against No. 1 seed Florida in Tampa, despite an 0-for-9 shooting performance from 3-point range by Bennett Stirtz, was simply stunning.
The Hawkeyes could feel the game slipping away due to their inability to force stops on the defensive end and their ineffectiveness at the free-throw line on the offensive end.
But a late-game push over multiple possessions gave Iowa a chance with 10 seconds remaining.
Iowa executed a beautiful inbounds play where Stirtz took the ball up the floor, popped from the 3-point line and found Alvaro Folgueiras wide open in the corner.
The shot went in, and the Gators couldn't get a shot up on the final possession.
That marked the most shocking result of the tournament so far, and it sets up this Big Ten matchup with a trip to the Elite Eight at stake.
Iowa head coach Ben McCollum regularly talks about the toughness and unselfishness of his team, and the offense has taken on the mold of its head coach to a T.
The Hawkeyes operate at one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 361st in possessions per game while averaging 62.
Stirtz averages 19.7 points per game, but just one other player is scoring in double figures, with Tavion Banks adding 10.6 points per contest.
Folgueiras and Cooper Koch average eight points, while four others chip in at least five points per game on average.
But the power of this unit isn't completely dependent on just one guy. Stirtz shares the ball incredibly well and leads Iowa with 156 assists this season. The cutting, movement without the ball and ability to swing the rock side to side is quite a sight to see.
The Iowa defense hasn’t been overtly dominant this season, but it has stepped up its game in the NCAA Tournament and is aided by its offense's style of play in the metrics.
The defense doesn’t see a ton of possessions and does a good job of making opponents work methodically to get up decent shots. However, the Hawkeyes don't protect the rim overly well, and they foul quite a bit in the post.
It makes this matchup with Nebraska more intriguing. The Huskers are one of the worst offenses in the country at getting to the stripe, as the offense focuses on getting good shots from the outside.
Iowa should be fine here on the defensive glass. The real assignment will be running shooters off the 3-point line and forcing some uncharacteristic turnovers.
Nebraska Basketball
Nebraska took the college basketball world by storm with its 20-0 start while nearly upsetting then-No. 1 Michigan this winter.
The hot outside shooting has made this bunch dangerous, and despite this being Nebraska’s first-ever Sweet-16, this group has proven time and again that this season is no fluke.
Nebraska has played competitive basketball against nearly everyone and has victories over three teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament.
Nebraska is at its best offensively when the 3-ball is dropping because the Huskers shoot a ton of shots from outside the arc.
Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort leads the scoring efforts, averaging 17.9 points per game, while Rienk Mast averages 13.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Mast plays out of the five but offers a unique skill set: He operates as a passer in this offense and can step back and bury the 3-ball.
In fact, four Huskers have made 50 or more 3-point shots this season, and when they're on, they're dangerous.
The defense excels in the metrics and boasts the sixth-most efficient stop unit in the country. Nebraska forces long possessions and desperation jump shots while keeping its opponents out of the paint and off the stripe.
This will be a chess match against Iowa, a familiar foe that Nebraska has already faced twice this season, with a road loss and a home win in overtime.
Iowa vs Nebraska Pick, Betting Analysis
This line came out with Nebraska listed as a 2-point favorite and a total of 134.5. I like Iowa to keep this game close with a chance to win late.
I simply can't overstate how impressive Iowa's win over Florida was.
The Gators were surging offensively and had completely erased a 12-point second-half lead while taking a two-possession advantage with five minutes to play.
Iowa struggled to rebound late, and its best player was 0-for-9 from deep.
The way this team locked in on defense in the final five minutes was ultra-impressive, and if the Hawkeyes knock down some shots here, they'll have a serious chance to win this game.
Meanwhile, in its two games against Iowa, Nebraska has struggled to find good looks from deep and knock them down. The Huskers are a combined 15-of-51 from beyond the arc against the Hawkeyes and have turned the ball over on 18% of possessions.
If the outside shots aren't falling, we could see long stretches of scoreless droughts for the Huskers here.
Enough of the “fun story” talk about Iowa. The Hawkeyes have shown defensive toughness and grit throughout the NCAA Tournament despite not playing their best offense.
I think we see a bit of positive shooting regression from Stirtz and the offense as a whole here. In a low-possession, low-scoring game, making 2-3 more shots could make all the difference.
If this game came down to a last-second shot, it wouldn't be a shock. I'll take Iowa +1.5 here.
My Pick: Iowa +1.5
