The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Crimson Tide are favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -390. The total is set at 173 points.
Here are my Mississippi State vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for February 25, 2025.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Picks
- Pick: Under 171.5 (Play to 169)
My Mississippi State vs. Alabama best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Odds, Betting Lines
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -115 | 173 -115o / -105u | +320 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -105 | 173 -115o / -105 | -420 |
- Mississippi State vs Alabama spread: Alabama -9, Mississippi State +9
- Mississippi State vs Alabama over/under: 173
- Mississippi State vs Alabama moneyline: Alabama ML -420, Mississippi State ML +320
- Mississippi State vs Alabama best bet: Under 171.5 (Play to 169)
Mississippi State vs Alabama NCAAB Preview
The Alabama Crimson Tide put on a show for their home crowd in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night as they took care of business against the Kentucky Wildcats. The Tide scored 96 points in the victory, showing that one of the nation's best offenses continues to dominate.
Meanwhile, the Mississippi State Bulldogs suffered a tough loss at Norman, losing 93-87 to Oklahoma. Now, the Bulldogs will try to bounce back and avenge their earlier season loss to the Tide.
There's no questioning that the Tide are a massive mismatch for Chris Jans' squad, especially given how they have performed defensively during conference play.
The Bulldogs are 14th in defensive effective field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage in the SEC, which poses a major issue against the high-flying Alabama offense.
The Tide have the fastest offense in the country and are not afraid to shoot the ball as soon as they cross half-court. It's also concerning that the Bulldogs don't have the offensive firepower to match their opponent.
Mississippi State struggles to get to the free-throw line and can't shoot the triple. It fails to defend the perimeter well and lacks the firepower to keep up in a presumed track meet.
Alabama is shooting 37% from deep in conference play, which makes me think some regression is looming. Regardless, this is the No. 1 team in the country in 2-point percentage.
The Bulldogs rank in the bottom half of the conference in 2-point percentage allowed, so despite the Tide being due for negative regression from deep, I wouldn't be surprised to see them get gashed again like the first matchup.
It's a good situational spot for the Bulldogs coming off a loss, but I can't trust them to keep the matchup close.
The best betting approach for the matchup is the under. It's extremely scary to take an under in an Alabama game, but the total has already started to dip down from 171.5 at open.
I want to grab it at 169.5 right now because every point in an Alabama game is extremely valuable to the total. Negative regression from deep is looming for the Tide, and I can see them relying on more shots near the rim throughout the game.
Alabama also typically thrives by going to the free-throw line, but Mississippi State does a good job at limiting opponent free-throw attempts.
The Bulldogs also realize they can't get into another track meet like the last matchup, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them slow down the tempo.
All it will take for the total to go under is a couple of scoring droughts, which I think is possible. Nate Oats' team also doesn't get enough credit defensively, considering they're often in high-scoring affairs.
I'm rolling the dice here, but given the quick movement of the market, I will happily take my chances with a few key metric edges working in our favor.
