With more high-major conference tournaments picking up steam, Wednesday was a significant day for teams on the bubble.
Texas and SMU both lost, which means it will be a long couple of days before Selection Sunday in the Lone Star State.
UCF avenged a 20-point loss to Cincinnati to pick up a key victory. The Golden Knights rallied from eight points down with two minutes to go to force overtime and pull off a 66-65 victory that will likely end the Bearcats' NCAA Tournament hopes.
Likewise, for Indiana, which was among the last four in and lost by double digits to Northwestern.
Without Indiana moving out, Auburn figures to be a beneficiary. It knocked off Mississippi State yesterday and has a chance to solidify a bid if it knocks off Tennessee today.
In the nightcap in Nashville, Oklahoma defeated South Carolina 86-74. It will need to knock off Texas A&M for the first time this season to improve its resume.
Read on for Thursday's edition of NCAA Bubble Watch as I break down two SEC matchups.
NCAAB Bubble Picks
Auburn vs Tennessee (-6), 3:00 p.m. ET
Tigers' Projected Seed: 11
Auburn lost eight of 10 to end the regular season.
However, it strung together its best performance in weeks on Wednesday as it defeated Mississippi State 79-61 in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Josh Hubbard scored 22 points, but the Tigers made it difficult on him as he shot 8-for-25 from the field, and his team shot 39% overall. Four Tigers were in double figures, led by Kevin Overton, who scored 22 points and knocked down six 3s.
In the second round, Auburn draws Tennessee, an interesting matchup for multiple reasons.
Head coach Steven Pearl played for his father, Bruce, at Tennessee. Now, the younger Pearl will have to defeat his alma mater to keep his Tigers' NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
Additionally, Tennessee is the team that started Auburn's tailspin with a 77-69 victory in Knoxville.
The Volunteers are safely in the tournament and currently projected as a six seed. As usual, they are strong defensively under Rick Barnes, ranking 15th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in conference play. It is a good counter to Auburn's offense, and Tennessee held them to 38% from the field and 23% in the first meeting.
Freshman standout Nate Ament did not have his best game from the field, but he still finished with 22 points and eight rebounds in the first meeting. He was one of four Vols with eight rebounds as they held a 46-30 edge in the rebounding battle.
Both teams are better at securing offensive rebounds, but Tennessee should have the edge in this matchup. It leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, while Auburn ranks 269th in defensive rebounding percentage.
With a victory in the first meeting, Tennessee has won and covered in five of the past seven meetings. I like the Vols to win by at least six points today.
Pick: Tennessee -6
Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M (Under 161), 9:30 p.m. ET
Sooners' Projected Seed: Next Four Out
With several on the bubble not seizing the opportunity to secure a bid, one team that can take advantage is Oklahoma.
The Sooners went 10-3 in nonconference and won their SEC opener against Ole Miss. However, a nine-game losing streak made their NCAA Tournament hopes bleak, leaving them at 11-12 in early February.
They closed the regular season on a high note, winning six of their final eight regular-season games. That includes an overtime win over the rival Longhorns last Saturday.
The old rivals split the season series, but with Oklahoma still playing and Texas losing to Ole Miss last night, the Sooners may have the opportunity to knock Texas out of the field.
To do that, the Sooners will have to get by Texas A&M, which swept the season series from them.
The two Aggies' victories featured 159 and 146 points, and both stayed Under.
That may be a bit of a surprise as Oklahoma ranks 20th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Texas A&M ranks 43rd.
However, a contrast in styles may tell the story, as Oklahoma ranks 232nd in adjusted tempo while Texas A&M ranks 28th.
The Sooners have been firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring 80 points in each game during their five-game winning streak. However, they have scored 76 and 71 points in two games against Texas A&M this season.
With both head-to-head meetings going Under, these two are 7-1 to the Under in the past eight meetings. That is particularly noticeable given that both teams are more offense-oriented this season.
However, 162 points may be too much to ask for here, given the series history and Oklahoma playing last night.
Pick: Under 161
