With the First Four now complete, the Round of 64 will tip off, and there may be fireworks in the opening game. Ohio State is a short favorite, but TCU forward David Punch says his team should win this game nine times out of 10. However, Ohio State guard Bruce Thornton may have something to say about that.
After winning the A-10 Tournament, VCU is a trendy upset pick against North Carolina. However, the Rams may struggle on the glass against the bigger Tar Heels, and Jarin Stevenson may take advantage.
Speaking of the First Four, Texas escaped Dayton, Ohio, on a game-winning jumper from Tramon Mark. That sets up what could be a high-scoring matchup against BYU. I'll be backing Dailyn Swain as the Longhorns look for their second consecutive win.
So, here's my NCAA Tournament player props for Thursday's first-round games.
NCAA Tournament Player Props for Thursday, March 19
- Bruce Thornton Over 19.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
- Jarin Stevenson Over 6.5 Rebounds (-150, Fanatics)
- Dailyn Swain Over 17.5 Points (-120, Fanatics)
Bruce Thornton Over 19.5 Points
vs. TCU | 12:15 p.m. ET
Thornton has had an illustrious career in Columbus, as he's now Ohio State's all-time leader in points and free-throws made. He's also the second Big Ten player ever to record 2,000 points, 500 rebounds and 500 assists.
While I could go on and on, Thornton will be most proud of getting his Buckeyes back in the NCAA Tournament. That was far from a guarantee, as Ohio State needed to win four of its final five games to secure a bid.
Thornton stepped up, as he's averaging 22.7 points over his last 10 games to get his season average up to over 20 a night. He's scored 18 points in nine of those games and 20 in eight of them.
At 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, Thornton has a frame that you would expect to see playing for Ryan Day rather than Jake Diebler. However, despite that, Thornton is shooting 55.8% from the field, including 64.7% on his 2-point attempts.
He'll face a TCU defense that's 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, it also ranks outside the top 150 in effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point percentage defense.
That should give Thornton ample opportunity as he rarely leaves the floor. He averages 36.5 minutes per game this season, and he's played 38 minutes or more in seven of his past 10 games. If that trend continues, I like his chances of scoring 20 points here.
Pick: Bruce Thornton Over 19.5 Points
Jarin Stevenson Over 6.5 Rebounds
vs. VCU | 6:50 p.m. ET
North Carolina was dealt a major blow when star player Caleb Wilson went down against Miami (FL). Just as he was nearing his return for a rematch against Duke, he broke his right thumb in practice and will miss the rest of the season.
That's left a void of 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per night for the Tar Heels, but they've still managed to go 5-3 without their freshman. Henri Veesaar has stepped up without his frontcourt mate, averaging 18.1 points and 7.3 rebounds over his past seven games.
However, he hasn't been alone.
Prior to Wilson's injury, Stevenson averaged 3.6 rebounds per game. Since then, he's averaged 6.6 boards over his past eight outings. He's recorded seven or more rebounds in five of those games, including 10 against Clemson and nine against Duke.
Even without Wilson, UNC will have a size advantage in this game, with Stevenson, Veesaar and Zayden High all standing 6-foot-10 or taller. That should help the Tar Heels win the battle on the boards, as VCU ranks 115th in offensive rebounding percentage and 154th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Stevenson has played 33 minutes in seven of his past eight games, and that should help him secure seven rebounds in this matchup.
Pick: Jarin Stevenson Over 6.5 Rebounds
Dailyn Swain Over 17.5 Points
vs. BYU | 7:25 p.m. ET
Texas was able to advance on Tuesday night despite just 13 points from its leading scorer, Swain. However, the junior has averaged 17.7 points per game on 54/34/82 shooting splits. He enters this Round of 64 matchup having scored 18 points in six of his last 10 games.
BYU is 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but that's a number that's on the rise. In Big 12 play, BYU was 14th in the category in conference play. Since the Cougars lost Richie Saunders for the season, they're just 4-5, and they've allowed 75 points or more in six of those games.
Texas' team total is 77.5 on Thursday, and if it gets there, it's likely with Swain in a starring role. He may have some motivation on Thursday given he'll be going against projected top-three pick AJ Dybantsa.
Swain is currently projected as a late first-round pick, but he may be able to improve his stock with an impressive tournament.
That will continue with 18 points on Thursday.
Pick: Dailyn Swain Over 17.5 Points
