The SMU Mustangs take on the Louisville Cardinals in the second round of the ACC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN Networks.
Louisville is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for March 11, 2026.
SMU vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: SMU +6.5 (Play to +4)
My SMU vs Louisville best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. Louisville Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- SMU vs Louisville spread: Louisville -6.5
- SMU vs Louisville over/under: 163.5 points
- SMU vs Louisville moneyline: SMU +205, Louisville -250
SMU vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville is a tough team to evaluate. The Cardinals finished 22-9 overall and 11-7 in ACC play, but they were undermanned in most of their league games.
That won’t change in the ACC Tournament.
Star guard Mikel Brown Jr. is out for the entire tourney. He played in 21 games this season, and Louisville went 16-5 in those games. So, in 10 games without Brown, the Cardinals are 6-4.
Pat Kelsey wants his teams to go crazy from 3 — whether the shots fall or not. That can lead to some volatility, as Louisville attempts 53% of its shots from deep — the highest mark in the country.
With Brown out, that’ll add pressure to Ryan Conwell’s plate. He scored 23+ points in three of his last five games and can single-handedly boost this Cardinals team to a win.
However, he shoots just 40% from the field and 35% from downtown.
Adrian Wooley will get Louisville into its offense. He finished the season with a 16-point and six-assist game in the win over Miami.
To make up for some of what is lost without Brown, Louisville will have to dominate the boards. It grabs offensive rebounds 33% of the time.
Sananda Fru is another name to watch. He’s the best big on this Louisville roster, and he leads the sport in 2-point percentage and is a monster on the boards.
On defense, Louisville is better than your average 3-point chucking offense. It ranks 30th in defensive efficiency and holds opponents to 48% shooting on 2s and 32% from deep.
On the flip side, this game matters more to SMU. The Mustangs likely lock themselves into an NCAA Tournament bid with a win.
SMU is an elite offensive unit, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are hyper-efficient from inside the arc (55%) and from deep (37%).
The tandem of Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr. will need to replicate their performance from the opening round. Miller scored 25 points and Pierre scored 21 (on 7-of-21 from the field).
Elite glue guy B.J. Edwards missed the last five games, so we’ll see if that changes this time around. Not having Edwards is a huge problem for SMU on defense. The Mustangs rank 106th in defensive efficiency, and rank outside the top-180 in 2-point and 3-point percentage.
To me, the key is if SMU can control the offensive glass. With Edwards out, Andy Enfield is playing a pair of true bigs in Jaden Toombs and Samet Yigitoglu. They grab offensive rebounds at a 35% clip, and that number is more dangerous with Toombs and Yigitoglu together.
I’m rolling with SMU. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Stangs went out and won this one, either.
Louisville is a much different team without the services of Brown. He makes Conwell more dangerous, since his scoring makes him the top option on the scouting report.
Now, it’s Conwell and who else? That’s a question without a real answer.
My Pick: SMU +6.5 (Play to +4)
