The 2025-26 College Football Playoff continues on Thursday with the much-anticipated Rose Bowl quarterfinal matchup between the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers and No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide.
This may come as a surprise to some folks, but Indiana is laying around a touchdown against Alabama.
Still, our experts from the "Big Bets On Campus" podcast all think the spread isn't high enough.
Let's take a look at our College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for Indiana vs. Alabama in the second round of the CFP below.
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Indiana vs. Alabama Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +200 |
Stuckey's Pick: Indiana -7 or Better
My numbers say the side is Indiana. I make the Hoosiers closer to a 10-point favorite.
However, Alabama's name recognition is keeping the number closer to seven.
Alabama is a fringe top-10 team nationally. The Crimson Tide’s body of work isn’t overly impressive — they got lucky against Oklahoma, Auburn, South Carolina, et cetera.
They can’t run the ball, and their defense is overrated.
Alabama has too many holes. You can’t be one-dimensional against Indiana, and the Tide will be at an extreme disadvantage on special teams.
I’ve power-rated Indiana as the nation’s second-best team for most of the year. The Hoosiers are a complete team with an elite staff that should have an elite game plan on Thursday.
I’m banking on the Hoosiers winning convincingly.
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Collin Wilson's Pick: Indiana -7 or Better
This is my favorite bet in the quarterfinal round.
I don’t think the number is outrageous.
Instead, I think Alabama is one-dimensional, and Curt Cignetti will eat that up.
He can shut down opposing offenses in multiple ways, and Kalen DeBoer will attempt to beat the Hoosiers through the air because the Tide can’t run the ball.
Oklahoma stuffed 17 of Alabama’s 21 rushing attempts, and that won’t get it done against Indiana.
In the passing attack, Ryan Williams has been MIA, and Germie Bernard can’t get anything beyond the line of scrimmage.
Yes, the Tide’s pass rush showed up against Oklahoma, but the Sooners have a pitiful offensive line. Indiana has an elite offensive line, and Alabama ranks 127th nationally in PFF’s Pass Rush grades on the season — I don’t expect to see much pressure.
I also don’t believe that Alabama’s defense is playing that well, and this is a tough matchup for the Tide.
Indiana’s offense is primarily Roman Hemby running inside-zone concepts and Kaelon Black running through gap-blocking schemes. Alabama can’t defend zone-read concepts, and I don’t see the Tide knocking Indiana off schedule.
Even worse, Alabama ranks 113th nationally in broken tackles allowed. Hemby and Black should create plenty of explosives once they get into the second level.
With the rain coming in, I don’t expect Fernando Mendoza to be a big part of the game plan, and he shouldn’t need to be with Indiana’s running game. However, it’s worth mentioning that Mendoza dominates cover-three and cover-two looks, which is what Kane Wommack primarily called against Oklahoma.
The Hoosiers lead the nation in defensive havoc, and this is going to be a slop-fest on a rainy field against an Alabama team that can’t run the ball.
I love the Hoosiers.
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Mike Calabrese's Pick: Indiana -7 · Indiana Alternate Spread
The Hoosiers should be a 10-point favorite. I think the public is refusing to budge on Indiana, when I believe that Curt Cignetti is college football’s next superstar coach.
Alabama shouldn’t have beaten Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide were down 17-0 and needed everything to go right to pull off the comeback.
Ty Simpson has been under fire lately. He’s taken 10 sacks in his past three games while getting pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks.
I expect that to be the difference on a soggy field where scrambling isn’t easy. Indiana will be coming after Simpson, and that will put too much pressure on him to play hero ball, especially considering the Tide don’t have a rushing attack.
At the same time, Indiana can be balanced and multiple on offense.
Once Alabama gets down by a possession or two and starts relying entirely on Simpson’s arm, I expect the roof to cave in. As a result, I may flirt with an alternate line — I think this is a showcase game for the Hoosiers.
