The Air Force Falcons (1-6, 0-4 MWC) travels to take on Army (7-0, 6-0 AAC) on Saturday, Nov. 2. The game kicks off at noon ET and can be seen live on CBS.
Army is currently listed as a 22-point favorite in the contest with an over/under set at 42.
This is the second leg of the “Commander-in-Chief” Armed Forces series with Air Force and Navy squaring off earlier in the season.
This spirited service academy rivalry will be just the second nonconference game of the season for the Black Knights as they look to continue building on a strong season.
With such a large spread for a service academy game, where does the value lie? Let’s dive into my Air Force vs. Army predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Air Force vs Army Prediction, Picks
- Air Force vs. Army Pick: Army -21.5
My Air Force vs. Army best bet is on the Black Knights to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Army Odds, Spread, Line
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | +1100 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | -2500 |
- Air Force vs Army Point Spread: Army -22.5
- Air Force vs Army Over/Under: 41.5 Total Points
- Air Force vs Army Moneyline: Army -2500 · Air Force +1100
Air Force vs Army Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Challenges on Offense
Air Force comes in off a much-needed bye week following six consecutive defeats, most recently a 21-13 home loss to Colorado State.
The Falcons have faced significant challenges this season on the offensive side of the football, as they've averaged just 295 total yards and 15.3 points per game.
Running the football has been the calling card for Air Force year after year, but the offensive line is getting zero push up front, and the team is not equipped with explosive ball-carriers.
The unit is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and 194 yards on the ground; both of these numbers are down significantly from Air Force rushing attacks of recent years.
Quarterback play has also been subpar for Air Force this season, as Falcon quarterbacks have completed just 41% of their throws with a 3:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Air Force defense has played OK this year but has been put in really tough situations because of the lack of offensive production. This unit has surrendered 382 yards and 27.5 points per game to this point.
The front seven has worn down throughout the season and is absolutely going to have to play its best football of the season this week to even think about slowing down Army.
Army Black Knights Betting Preview: Elite Run Game
Army comes in off a bye week and has cruised to a 5-0 mark in AAC play while scoring 40-plus points in four straight games.
The Black Knights' rushing attack is averaging 359 yards per game with 31 rushing touchdowns and an average of 6.6 yards per carry.
Quarterback Bryson Daily has paced the Army attack with 909 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. He has also been efficient through the air, with 629 yards passing and seven touchdown throws, all without an interception this year.
The offensive line is creating holes for the backs and has done well protecting Daily in limited opportunities.
Defensively, the Knights have held opponents to just 12.5 points and 282 total yards per game while limiting explosive plays against them. They should have success here in controlling a weak offensive attack from Air Force.
Army vs Air Force Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and Air Force match up statistically:
Air Force Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 134 | 40 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 6 | |
Army Offense vs. Air Force Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 90 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 71 | 76 |
| PFF Coverage | 122 | 71 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 128 | 38 |
| Middle 8 | 129 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (91) | 33.7 (134) |
| Rush Rate | 78% (2) | 87% (1) |
How to Bet My Air Force vs Army Pick
I know this is a huge number in a service academy game, but I'm going to lay it here with Army.
Air Force has scored more than seven points in the first half against FBS competition this season just once. It's averaging just 130.5 yards in the first half this season against FBS teams and has trailed by double digits at the half three weeks in a row.
When Air Force has to play from behind, the struggles become magnified with sacks and inefficient offense. The Falcons rank 132nd nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 130th in Offensive EPA Per Play.
They haven’t moved the ball effectively on the ground and are now facing a stout Army run defense that's familiar with the scheme.
Army ranks fourth nationally in Defensive Rush Explosiveness allowed, and opponents are rushing for just 79.6 yards per game against the Black Knights.
Army has given up some yards through the air in recent weeks, but I can't see that being much of a factor in the decision here. Air Force has very little explosiveness on the outside, and the offensive line play has been weak in pass protection.
Air Force ranks just 123rd nationally in Standard Down Success Rate and 115th in Standard Down EPA Per Play.
The Falcons have not had success on third down this season, converting just 33.6% on the season. Fourth-and-short is usually “go-time” for the Flyboys, but this year has been a struggle. They've gone just 14-for-26 in fourth-down attempts.
Offensively, it's hard to see Army being shut down or really even slowed in this one. Air Force has surrendered 193.7 yards per game on the ground on 5.1 yards per carry.
Army ranks eighth nationally in Standard Down Success Rate on offense, while Air Force is 93rd defensively in that metric.
The Black Knights run the ball more than any team in the country, so I'll be really interested to see how the Falcons' front seven wears down in this one after seeing so many physical rushing attempts here.
When Army builds a lead, it swallows the ball and plays keep-away. We won't see enough possessions in the second half for Air Force to be able to play catch up.
Even while salting the games away in the second half, we have seen plenty of second-half scoring from Army. The Black Knights have scored 87 second-half points in the last four weeks to extend or preserve big leads.
Look for the Knights to punch it in late and extend the margin in the second half.
Pick: Army -21.5
Air Force vs Army Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Air Force vs Army Betting Trends
- 84% of bets and 98% of the money are on Army to cover the spread
- 94% of bets and 78% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Air Force vs Army Weather
