It might seem like an ugly matchup, but as college football fans, we love to watch any game on our televisions.
On Saturday night, we've got a couple of 1-4 Mountain West teams set to clash in Albuquerque, New Mexico, as the New Mexico (1-4, 0-1 MWC) Lobos host the Air Force Falcons (1-4, 0-2).
The Falcons were blitzed by Navy last weekend, and the Lobos dropped 50 on New Mexico State before their bye week. I would not be surprised to see some ridiculous shenanigans throughout Saturday's matchup.
New Mexico enters as a 6.5-point favorite with a total set at 54.5.
Let's dive into my Air Force vs. New Mexico predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Air Force vs New Mexico Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 56 -110 / -110 | +215 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 56 -110 / -110 | -265 |
- Air Force vs New Mexico spread: New Mexico -6.5
- Air Force vs New Mexico over/under: 56 points
- Air Force vs New Mexico moneyline: New Mexico -265
- Air Force vs New Mexico pick: Under 55
My New Mexico-Air Force best bet is on both teams to go under the total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs New Mexico Preview
Air Force Football
The Falcons are having an incredibly rough season. To make matters worse, their triple-option offense has been a disaster. They've suffered back-to-back losses to Wyoming and Navy.
The offense has scored 36 combined points in the past four games, and their metrics speak for themselves. Quarterback John Busha has not thrown a touchdown pass and averages just 2.79 yards per carry as a runner.
The Falcons rank outside the bottom 100 in most offensive metrics, a complete 180 from last season. They're 115th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in Line Yards.
It's a decent matchup against a bad Lobos defense, but it reminds me of the matchup against Wyoming a couple of weeks ago in Laramie. The Pokes entered the game with some of the nation's ugliest defensive metrics.
Can the Falcons take advantage, though? I would not be the one to make that wager.
It could be better defensively, too. Air Force sits outside the top 65 in Rush Success Rate Allowed and Line Yards.
The Lobos' aerial attack is bad, but the Falcons rank just 112th in PFF coverage grading.
I would typically be all over a service academy catching nearly a touchdown here, but it's not enough to stomach a wager for the Falcons. The clock should be moving, so possessions could be limited for both teams.
New Mexico Football
The Lobos offense is the opposite of the Falcons', as they love running tempo. They rank 34th in seconds per play and have been much more effective thus far in 2024.
The Lobos are in the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate and top 20 in Havoc Allowed. The pocket has been primarily clean for quarterback Devon Dampier, who has over 1,300 passing yards and six touchdowns.
Dampier's problem has been his carelessness with the ball, as he has thrown 5 interceptions and lost one fumble. However, he's averaging over 8 yards per carry, so he's been a solid offensive threat thus far.
Because of their horrific defense, I can't get excited about the Lobos' matchup. This team was shredded by Montana State in Week 0.
This is not to say Montana State is not a respectable FCS foe, but there's a big reason New Mexico ranks 132nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have been awful offensively, but the triple-option offense could give the Lobos some fits.
The good news is that UNM is coming off of a bye week, so the extra week to prepare is a massive plus. The defense ranks outside the bottom 125 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Falcons hold on to the ball for extended periods.
Air Force vs New Mexico Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Air Force and New Mexico match up statistically:
Air Force Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 133 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 133 | 127 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 129 | 134 | |
New Mexico Offense vs. Air Force Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 123 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 81 | |
| Quality Drives | 81 | 75 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 132 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 107 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 116 | 133 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 57 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (105) | 25.6 (34) |
| Rush Rate | 80% (2) | 47% (95) |
Air Force vs New Mexico Prediction
I'm terrified to bet an under with two terrible defenses, but that's the best play for this matchup.
The public will perceive that both teams have gone over in their last games, and that's the case according to the betting splits thus far.
The Falcons should take advantage of the Lobos defense to establish some drives, but their inability to cash in will help the under massively.
New Mexico may easily roll at home here, but I don't think there will be enough possessions for the game to climb over the total. We've already started to see sharp money move across the counter on the under, so I'll ride with the wise guys here.
Pick: Under 55 (Play to 54)
Air Force vs New Mexico Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | truTV |
Air Force vs New Mexico Weather
