The Alabama Crimson Tide takes on the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round of the College Football Playoff in Norman, Oklahoma, on Friday, Dec. 19. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Updated odds make Oklahoma a 1.5-point favorite on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 41.5 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 19.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Picks
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma Pick: Oklahoma ML -115
My Oklahoma vs. Alabama best bet is on the Sooners to win the game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs Oklahoma Odds, Line
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 41.5 -112o / -108u | +110 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 41.5 -112o / -108u | -130 |
- Alabama vs Oklahoma Point Spread: Oklahoma -1.5, Alabama +1.5
- Alabama vs Oklahoma Total: 41.5 Total Points
- Alabama vs Oklahoma ML: Alabama ML +110, Oklahoma ML -130
Alabama vs Oklahoma NCAAF Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide
When it comes down to it, Alabama probably shouldn't have lost its Week 12 home game against Oklahoma, as it won the battle in yards per play and Points Per Scoring Opportunity.
Special teams and critical turnovers proved to be key in the Crimson Tide's loss. In fact, quarterback Ty Simpson threw an 87-yard pick-six to Eli Bowen for the Sooners' first touchdown of the game.
After throwing a single interception through the first nine games, Simpson has thrown half of his turnover-worthy plays in the last four games.
There's reason to think that Simpson could be dealing with an injury and that targets have been out of sync in catching the ball. Alabama has 26 drops on the season, with eight of them coming in the past two games against Auburn and Georgia.
The offense's success depends on Simpson's connection with receivers Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton and Ryan Williams.
The running game has been muted of late, as the Tide averaged 1.5 yards per play on the ground in the SEC Championship against Georgia.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack did have success in stopping the Oklahoma offense, limiting quarterback John Mateer to just 23 rushing yards.
Oklahoma was stuffed on more than half of its 26 rushing attempts in Week 12, finishing with a poor 27% Success Rate on passing downs.
The Alabama defense was tested the entire game, as Oklahoma was spotted an average starting field position at the 42-yard line. The Crimson Tide must be better on special teams, as OU punter Grayson Miller had six punts for 280 yards with three inside the 20-yard line.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma escaped with a 5% post-game win expectancy against Alabama thanks to defense and special teams. Since the Week 12 victory, the Sooners have won low-scoring affairs over Missouri and LSU, scoring a grand total of 34 points.
Oklahoma ranks at the top of FBS in nearly every defensive category, but a loss to Ole Miss in Week 9 on home soil could provide the blueprint for what kind of offense may have success.
The Rebels' zone read with Kewan Lacy and Trinidad Chambliss dominated the Sooners, but an uncharacteristic 18 missed tackles assisted Ole Miss in its victory.
There's no expectation that Oklahoma will have sloppy fundamentals in this one after missing a total of 20 tackles over the following three games against Tennessee, Alabama and Missouri.
The Oklahoma offense, meanwhile, has been sluggish over the final month, falling outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The national average for available yards gained is 44% for an FBS offense, but the Sooners have failed to eclipse 35% of available yards over their past three games.
After blazing the ground for Washington State a year ago, Mateer has generated only one run over 22 yards the entire season.
However, the connection between Mateer and slot receiver Isaiah Sategna III has been electric. The Arkansas transfer led the team in targets over the final three games, receiving 14 in the finale against LSU.
Sategna ended the season at 2.4 yards per route, easily the most explosive target in the Sooners' stable of options in the passing game.
Alabama vs Oklahoma NCAAF Pick to Bet
This exact game was part of my Week 12 card in November. Oklahoma was an underdog in the first game, but the Sooners have shifted to favorites this time around thanks to Simpson's issues throwing against this secondary.
Plenty of noise also surrounds Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer. The former Washington head coach is considered the first choice for the Michigan job, a factor that may gain more steam if the Crimson Tide were to lose in Norman.
The bigger need for Alabama in this game is health among key offensive players. Tight end Josh Cuevas and running back Jam Miller both sat out for the SEC Championship game. Miller wasn't listed on the most recent injury report, but Cuevas was listed as questionable.
As in Week 12, there remains a massive edge for Oklahoma on defense and special teams. The Sooners rank 21st in Special Teams SP+, with Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Tate Sandell leading the way.
Alabama sits in the bottom 25 of all FBS special teams units, a factor that could squander field position and require methodical drives to score.
The Alabama offense has been plagued by injuries and drops, two areas the Sooners defense will surely be aware of in the opening round of the playoff.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Oklahoma as a 2-point favorite, giving a bit of value to the Sooners.
Although OU isn't expected to create methodical drives, Mateer will lean heavily on his connection with Sategna. The Oklahoma quarterback should have time against a poor Alabama pass rush that has racked up just two sacks over its final two games.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -115
