The "Third Saturday in October" has finally arrived, signifying the return of the rivalry between the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 2-1 SEC) and the Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 2-1). This Week 8 clash between No. 7 Alabama and No. 11 Tennessee kicked off at 3:50 p.m. ET on ABC and is streaming live on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming platforms. The game was scheduled for 3:30, but kickoff was delayed because of the Miami vs. Louisville game.
Alabama closed as a consensus 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee on the spread (Alabama -3.5), with the over/under set at 57.5 points. The Crimson Tide are a -161 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, while the Volunteers are +135 underdogs to pick up the home upset victory.
Let's dive into my Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- Alabama vs. Tennessee spread: Alabama -3.5
- Alabama vs. Tennessee over/under: 57.5 points
- Alabama vs. Tennessee moneyline: Alabama -161, Tennessee +135
- Alabama vs. Tennessee best bet: Alabama -3
- 72% of bets and 85% of the money are on Alabama to cover the spread.
- 95% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on Alabama to win outright.
- 64% of bets and 67% of the money are on the over.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction
- My pick: Alabama -3
My Tennessee vs. Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide spread at -3, with the best line currently available at ESPN BET, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama holds a 59-39-7 all-time lead since the series began in 1901, but revenge is on the table after the last time the Crimson Tide entered Neyland Stadium. Tennessee had lost 15 consecutive games in this series until 2022 when the Volunteers beat the Tide in a game that saw 101 total points.
Both Alabama and Tennessee are 2-1 in the conference standings, and the loser of this game will fall to 5-2 overall and to the back of the pack in the SEC standings.
The most fascinating aspect of the game will be the Crimson Tide defense against the Volunteers passing offense, as both units have struggled in losing efforts this season.
Spread
I'm betting on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread as 3-point favorites. Alabama has crept up to -3.5 at most books, but you can still find Alabama -3 at a few places, so be sure to shop around.
Moneyline
Alabama should win this one, given my bet on the Tide to cover, but I don't have a bet on the outright winner.
Over/Under
Based on the total for Tennessee vs. Alabama, we should be in for an entertaining game, but I'm not betting the total of 57.5.
My pick: Alabama -3
Alabama Football
Alabama has played in consecutive one-possession games in the SEC.
The Crimson Tide defense survived a furious comeback from Georgia, only to succumb to the Vanderbilt offense the following week. The struggles continued once more in a Week 7 close call against South Carolina as a three-touchdown favorite.
When sifting through the box scores for answers about the struggles with the Commodores and Gamecocks, there are a number of common themes.
Both Vanderbilt and South Carolina won the time-of-possession battle, each logging more first downs than the Crimson Tide. Both opponents combined to convert third and fourth downs on 21-of-35 attempts.
The Crimson Tide defense allowed 11 passes of at least 15 yards to quarterbacks Diego Pavia and LaNorris Sellers. The ability to stop the explosive pass had been an issue long before Vanderbilt beat Alabama. Georgia and Carson Beck diced up the secondary for nine explosive passes in an attempted comeback.
The frustrations with the defense were visible against Vanderbilt, as captain Malachi Moore had a number of acts that required an apology.
Malachi Moore is gonna be answering questions about this all spring
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) October 6, 2024
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack's 3-3-5 has seen a decline from most defensive backs over those contests, including Moore, but a trio of players have held steady.
Linebackers Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell and slot cornerback DeVonta Smith have been critical in during the past eight quarters of Alabama football.
The Crimson Tide run one of the highest rates of man coverage in the nation at 38%, well above the rate Wommack called in three seasons at South Alabama.
The positive comes with the Alabama offense, as quarterback Jalen Milroe has not created a turnover-worthy play on a deep pass since the start of the 2023 season.
Wide receiver Ryan Williams now leads the team in targets, doubling the number needed to be considered an explosive target at 4.2 yards per route run.
Alabama ranks top-10 in Passing Success Rate and explosives, indicating that DeBoer is ready to get into a haymaker boxing match with any offense in the country.
Tennessee Football
The biggest news from Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel's weekly press conference was the status of middle linebacker Keenan Pili. The sixth-year senior led the team in tackles and stops while providing one of the highest rush defense grades on the roster but will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury.
Not only is this a blow to the Tennessee defense from an analytics standpoint, but Pili was the "green dot" helmet communication for defensive coordinator Tim Banks.
Bigger questions remain on the Tennessee offense, as the explosive nature of the passing game has hit a sour spot over the past few weekends.
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has nearly as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws, failing to record a passing touchdown since Week 4 against Oklahoma.
Questions persist as to whether or not the book is out on how to defend Heupel's wide splits spread attack, as Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams stifled the Volunteers with a 3-3 star scheme.
NICO DIDN’T KNOW WHAT TO DO AND ARKANSAS IS STORMING THE FIELD
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 6, 2024
The Volunteers have fallen outside the top 100 in Passing EPA, a measurement of explosives through the air.
That number falls to 126th in passing downs, a byproduct of Iamaleava's struggles with pressure. In 178 dropbacks by Tennessee, Iamaleava has seen pressure on 46 passing attempts with only six completions.
The sophomore has failed to record a big-time throw in a crowded pocket, with a massive drop to 35% in adjusted completion rate.
Differing coverages have been an issue for Tennessee as well, with man and Cover 1 giving the Volunteers the most trouble in downfield passing.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Tennessee match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 96 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 4 |  |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 2 | |
Tennessee Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 26 | 27 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 25 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 91 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 9 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (76) | 24.0 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (41) | 62% (23) |
DeBoer and Heupel are no strangers to each other, each hailing from South Dakota with plenty of respect shared between the two offensive masterminds.
Heupel's offenses have never been successful against man coverage dating back to his first season in Knoxville. Tennessee has posted a low 44% Success Rate against man with a negative value in expected points.
Not only does Alabama play an extensive amount of man coverage, but Wommack also pivots to a Cover 1 look that has limited Iamaleava to a 27% Success Rate this season. Outside of scheme, Alabama's linebacker play is crucial for success against Tennessee's passing game.
The Volunteers' wide split-spread offense utilizes the entire field from sideline to sideline. This scheme forces opposing outside linebackers to declare coverage assignments pre-snap.
Defenders that lack the skill or size at the outside linebacker position are often burned by Squirrel White and Chas Nimrod out of the slot. However, Alabama fields the fourth- and 15th-ranked individual defenders in man coverage in Campbell and Lawson.
Action Network's projected spread calls for Alabama -2.5, providing no value in the market with respect to the side.
However, there are many advantages for the Crimson Tide going into this game, from outstanding linebacker play in coverages that trouble Tennessee to a new signal-caller for the Volunteers defense.
Expect the offensive struggles to continue for Tennessee, while the defense could be in for a rude awakening.
The Volunteers managed to face a team without a deep passing threat at quarterback until the Arkansas game. Taylen Green posted 10 passing plays ofat least 15-yards, followed up by another seven from Florida in Week 7.
Expect Milroe's elite deep passing to find Williams for some explosive scores.
Pick: Alabama -3 or Better · Tennessee Under 27.5 or Better
