The Alabama Crimson Tide were the No. 1 ranked team in the country. They rolled against Georgia. They were 4-0 overall and 1-0 in conference play heading into Saturday. They should have had their eyes set on the 2-2 Vanderbilt Commodores. Oddsmakers had the Crimson Tide set to roll again as massive favorites. And instead, down went the Tide, as Vanderbilt pulled off a historic 40-35 win.
What were the odds of Vanderbilt beating Alabama?
Alabama closed as 23.5-point favorites on the spread against Vanderbilt (Alabama -23.5), with the Crimson Tide -2400 favorites to win on the moneyline and Vanderbilt +1180 to pull off the upset.
If you remove the vigorish, that gave Vanderbilt just a 7.53% chance of beating Alabama, with the Crimson Tide favored to win 92.47% of the time.
Let's break down everything you need to know about the odds of a potential Vanderbilt upset over Alabama, the point spread, and why our expert picked Vanderbilt to cover the spread as his best bet.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Odds, Point Spread, Lines
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -108 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -2400 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -112 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
- Alabama vs Vanderbilt Point Spread: Alabama -23.5, Vanderbilt +23.5
- Alabama vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Alabama -2400, Vanderbilt +1180
- Alabama vs Vanderbilt Total: Over/Under 53.5 points
Betting Splits
- 97% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline were on Alabama to win outright.
- 72% of bets and 62% of the money on the spread were on Alabama to cover.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Picks, Predictions
Alabama Crimson Tide Football vs Vanderbilt Commodores Football Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Can Milroe Do It Again?
If it isn't apparent after last week, Alabama's offense is dynamic and one of the best in the country. It all starts with quarterback Jalen Milroe, who is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after he proved to be the most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in the country.
If Milroe and company are sharp for this matchup, they shouldn't face much resistance through the air. Vandy ranks 88th in opponent completion percentage and 71st in yards per pass allowed.
However, Alabama has kept the ball on the ground nearly 60% of the time, and Vanderbilt has been much more stout against the run. The Commodores outrank the Crimson Tide 12 to 92 in rushing success rate and 25 to 87 in line yards.
So, this game may rest more on Milroe's arm than Alabama wants, and any inconsistencies or lapses in concentration could force the offense off the field.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Commodores Can Compete
There is no shortage of mobile quarterbacks in this matchup, as Diego Pavia has been excellent through the air and on the ground for the Commodores. Pavia has completed 64% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception.
Pavia's QBR of 72.3 ranks 33rd in the country, and his arm could keep the Commodores in this matchup. Since they will likely be trailing, Pavia and company will need to stretch the Alabama defense to open up things on the ground.
Vandy, much like Alabama, prefers to run the ball behind its mobile quarterback and lead running back. However, the likely game script will force it to get creative through the air.
Look for Pavia to use his mobility to buy time outside the pocket and scramble when able. While the Crimson Tide's defense is tough, we haven't been given a reason to doubt that Pavia can't lead the Commodores down the field against top-notch units.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 85 | |
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 33 |  |
| Line Yards | 80 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 11 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 8 | 69 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 50 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (86) | 29.6 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (28) | 65% (19) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction
The market has bought in on the Commodores since this line opened. This is a letdown spot for Alabama after its huge win against Georgia.
Alabama can't afford to overlook Vanderbilt, and I'm expecting the Commodores to give the Crimson Tide a good fight and cover the spread.
Pick: Vanderbilt +22.5 | Play to +21.5
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs Alabama Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends
- Alabama is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS
- Vanderbilt is 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS
- Alabama games are 3-1 to the Over
- Vanderbilt games are 4-0 to the Over
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Weather
