The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Madison on Saturday to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Noon Kickoff game on FOX. Start time is set for 12 p.m. ET, with the game streaming on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app and other streaming platforms.
Alabama is a consensus 16.5-point favorite against Wisconsin. The over/under is currently down to 47.5 points in the minutes before kickoff after being 48 or 48.5 for much of the morning, with the 2-0 Crimson Tide -800 favorites on the moneyline to pick up the win and the 2-0 Badgers +550 to pull off the upset at home.
Find my Alabama vs. Wisconsin predictions below and my college football picks and predictions for Week 3 on Saturday.
Alabama vs. Wisconsin Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
- Alabama vs. Wisconsin spread: Alabama -16.5
- Alabama vs. Wisconsin over/under: 47.5 points
- Alabama vs. Wisconsin moneylines: Alabama -800, Wisconsin +550
- Alabama vs. Wisconsin pick: Wisconsin Under 16.5 Points
My Wisconsin vs. Alabama best bet for Saturday is on the Badgers to go under their team-specific scoring total. For all your bets, make sure to find the best line with our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama comes in off a 63-0 win over Western Kentucky in which the Tide not only covered the 37.5-point spread but also went over the total of 60.5 by themselves. Wisconsin failed to cover its last time out, as the Badgers were -24.5 in a 28-14 win over Western Michigan.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers College Football
College football is undergoing massive changes, from conference realignment to a new format for the College Football Playoff. Although we're in a new era, the issues that have plagued both Wisconsin and Alabama continue to persist in 2024.
The Crimson Tide have long struggled to reach a high level of success from the offensive line in run and pass blocking. Head coach Kalen DeBoer inherited one of the more potent offensive attacks in the country, but the Crimson Tide have allowed 13 pressures through two games.
Run blocking continues to be an issue for Alabama, as it allowed South Florida to stuff 42% of its 38 rushing attempts in Week 2.
Meanwhile, the Wisconsin offense continues to struggle in the passing game despite a change at quarterback. The sluggish attack has failed to create explosives on the ground or through the air in a two-game sample against South Dakota and Western Michigan.
Head coach Luke Fickell spoke about the need for receivers to create separation downfield, something that keeps the Badgers outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate.
Expect the Badgers faithful to jump around, as one of the premier SEC programs steps out of the southern footprint to play in Camp Randall Stadium.
Alabama Football
Despite a point spread north of four touchdowns, Alabama struggled in a second consecutive season against South Florida. The Bulls managed to stuff a high rate of rushing attempts but gave up ground explosives when the Crimson Tide maintained blocks.
The all-or-nothing offensive line created enough holes for junior Jam Miller, who had a breakout party against South Florida, creating three explosive runs while averaging 4.6 yards after first contact.
JAM! 🍇 Alabama RB Jam Miller explodes for a 56-yard touchdown during the Crimson Tide's 42-16 win over USF. #RollTidepic.twitter.com/h8ecJDq39P
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) September 8, 2024
Conversely, the offensive line has failed to protect quarterback Jalen Milroe, allowing 15 pressures on just 44 dropbacks this season. Alabama ranks outside the top 100 in pass-block grading, per PFF.
When Milroe can get a clean release, a number of explosive weapons await.
Washington transfer Germie Bernard is the co-leader in targets, sharing slot duties with Kobe Prentice.
However, the star of the Alabama offense was born against South Florida, as 17-year old Ryan Williams hauled in a third touchdown while maintaining an average depth of target mark of 19.5 yards.
Through eight targets on the season, no opposing defender has created a contested catch.
Today my 17-year old daughter couldn’t pump her own gas
Here is 17-year old Ryan Williams dominating the South Florida secondary@AlabamaFTBL | #RollTidepic.twitter.com/dZmi0lH4h1
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) September 8, 2024
The Crimson Tide defense has been stellar under new coordinator Kane Wommack. The 3-3-5 scheme ranks top-20 in nearly every defensive category, including the top national rank in broken tackles allowed.
Weakside linebacker Jihaad Campbell leads the team in tackles, nearly doubling the amount of the second-leading tackler, safety Malachi Moore.
South Florida produced just one touchdown drive in 17 offensive possessions, ending the game with an abnormally low 3.8 overall yards per play.
The bigger issue for Alabama resides with penalties, ranking bottom-10 in penalized yards per game.
Wisconsin Football
The Phil Longo offense continues to struggle in the second season under Fickell. Previously one of the fastest offenses in the nation, Wisconsin averages a mid-FBS pace of 27 seconds per play.
The usage of 10 personnel from last season has been limited in 2024, as Wisconsin is opting for double-tight end sets on 38% of its offensive snaps.
Even with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke under center, Wisconsin struggles to create separation and uncontested catches.
That Tyler Van Dyke to Trech Kekahuna connection 🔥🎯@BadgerFootballpic.twitter.com/x02qC1r6mU
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 31, 2024
Longo was known for explosives through the air and on the ground, but those attributes did not travel with the coach to Madison.
The Badgers are falling in the same position as last season from an EPA perspective, ranking 99th in rush explosives and 124th in pass explosives. The offense has been respectable in the trench from a Line Yards and pass-blocking perspective.
The running backs continue to lack elusiveness, as Chez Mellusi and Tawee Walker each average less than 2.5 yards after first contact.
Fickell's teams always come down to defense, but this season is trending in the wrong direction. The 2-4-5 of coordinator Mike Tressel struggles to defend the run and is ranking outside the top 100 in Havoc. Wisconsin has yet to force a fumble and has just seven tackles for loss against one of the softer two-week schedules in the country.
The strength of the defense has come in coverage grading, holding a rank of 25th in on-target allowed. Safety Hunter Wohler has dominated thus far, creating two pass breakups and limiting opposing passers to a 56 NFL rating when targeted.
Alabama vs. Wisconsin Pick: Bet This Under
The best bet in this SEC/Big Ten showdown comes on the side of the ball with two known quantities.
The Alabama defense has been solid under Wommack, swarming at top-20 levels in nearly every category against the enthused Group of Five offenses of South Florida and Western Kentucky.
While Alabama ranks fifth in defensive pass explosive prevention, Wisconsin ranks bottom-10 in creating the explosive pass.
The Badgers rank last nationally in big-play rate, a weighted collection of gains over 20 yards. More importantly, Wisconsin will be one-dimensional when Van Dyke passes against a Crimson Tide defense that sits eighth in on-target allowed.
The Badgers' task of creating methodical drives comes down to the offensive line push. Wisconsin does have a successful rush offense from the trench perspective in Stuff Rate and Line Yards, and it will need every inch against an Alabama defense that's expected to load and blitz the box while maintaining a rate of 10th in Success Rate against the rush.
Even with a successful drive into scoring territory for the Badgers, Alabama's red-zone defense has been in terminator mode. In 10 drives across the Crimson Tide's 40-yard line, opponents have averaged just 1.6 points per trip.
Look for Wommack to solve a moderated Longo offense that now features heavier personnel and a slower tempo.
Alabama has tightened up in the red zone against competent Group of Five offenses with explosive players — an element Wisconsin does not have.
Pick: Wisconsin Under (Bet at 16.5 or Better)
| Location: | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Alabama vs. Wisconsin Betting Trends
- Alabama is 2-0 straight up and 1-1 against the spread this season.
- The Crimson Tide have gone over the total once and under the total once.
- Wisconsin has gone 2-0 straight up but 0-2 against the spread in 2024.
- The under has cashed in both of the Badgers' games.
