App State's tough 2024 continues, as the Mountaineers (2-3) travel to the bayou to play the Ragin’ Cajuns (4-1). Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Louisiana is favored by 10.5 points at home in the latest edition of a fun cross-divisional rivalry, with the total set at 65.
These two programs have met in three of the past six Sun Belt championships. While that postseason showdown is not in the cards for this year, these coaches are very familiar with each other.
Louisiana's wildly productive ground game will test the generous App State defense in this one, so let's dive into my App State vs Louisiana predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Prediction
My App State vs Louisiana bet is on the Ragin' Cajuns spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Odds, Lines, Pick
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -108 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -112 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Appalachian State vs Louisiana Point spread: Louisiana -10
- Appalachian State vs Louisiana over/under: 64.5 points
- Appalachian State vs Louisiana moneyline: Louisiana -360
- App State vs Louisiana pick: Louisiana -10.5
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Preview
App State Football
It's been a tough season in Boone.
The defense, once the hallmark of this proud program, has collapsed after a few years of trending downward. Coordinator Scot Sloan should be proud of his past work, but his 2024 unit ranks 117th nationally in defensive SP+. It’s hard to find a metric where they aren't near the bottom of FBS.
You can rush or pass against App State, as the Mountaineers are bad in both areas. The rush defense is particularly gruesome, ranking dead last among FBS programs in EPA per Rush allowed (0.26).
They let opponents waltz up and down the field while forcing zero Havoc (ranking 127th nationally) and failing to stand up in the red zone (ranking 90th in Defensive Finishing Drives).
They just allowed a 50-burger to a generally lifeless Marshall offense.
The offense has also regressed from last year. Quarterback Joey Aguilar was a sensational playmaker, and his counting metrics are still solid (1,523 yards, 8 touchdowns). Still, the offense is mediocre overall, ranking 87th nationally in Success Rate.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview: Off to a Great Start
After treading water for the first few years of the post-Billy Napier era in Lafayette, Michael Desormeaux is off to his best start as head man.
The Cajuns are 4-1, with the only loss to in-state rival Tulane by a touchdown. They have notched wins over Wake Forest and Southern Miss — their first win in Hattiesburg since Brett Favre was under center for the Golden Eagles (seriously).
The three-year quarterback see-saw is finally over. Ben Wooldridge appears to have finally wrestled the job away from Chandler Fields; the two had gone back and forth since 2022. Wooldridge has completed 69% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and only three picks with a 77.7 QBR — the final stat ranks 26th nationally among qualified quarterbacks.
The Cajuns boast a well-balanced attack, ranking 38th nationally in EPA per Dropback and ninth in EPA per Rush. The Cajuns rely on a trio of running backs and will ride the hot hand. Sophomore Bill Davis (6.8 yards per carry) is joined by Zylan Perry (7.6) and Dre’Lyn Washington (5.7). Each has led the team in rushing for a game at least once so far on the season.
Parker Fleming’s “ECKEL rate” measures how often a team creates a scoring chance – defined as a first down inside their opponent's 40. Louisiana’s offense ranks 5th nationally in creating such productive drives, while App State’s defense ranks 102 in allowing ECKELs.
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Matchup Stats
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Louisiana match up statistically:
Appalachian State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 86 | |
Louisiana Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 133 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 126 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 84 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 76 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 111 | 61 |
| Middle 8 | 72 | 80 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (29) | 30.1 (124) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (116) | 53% (63) |
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Prediction
With a veteran, efficient offense taking on a beaten-down defense, Louisiana has a major advantage.
App State’s stop unit was struggling before a natural disaster hit their hometown. It’s impossible to fathom how difficult things are for the Mountaineers.
For Louisiana, the season has been the opposite. Things are coming together under Desormeaux, driven by stability and productivity on offense after years of searching for answers. They have already exorcized the Southern Miss demon and will now move on to another former tormentor from previous conference championship games.
The Cajuns have the advantages off the field, and have a huge advantage when they have the ball, as demonstrated by their radar charts from Game On Paper.
I’ll lay it with Louisiana at -13 or better.
Pick: Louisiana -10.5 (Play to -13)
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
App State and Louisiana go head-to-head in Lafayette, Louisiana, on Saturday, October 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Betting Trends
- Louisiana is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.
- Louisiana games are 3-2 to the under.
- App State is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS.
- App State games are 3-2 to the under.
Appalachian State vs Louisiana Weather
