Two teams that have had their 2024 seasons go in completely opposite directions square off in Stillwater on Saturday night.
Oklahoma State (3-5, 0-5 Big 12) was viewed by many as a contender to win the league in the preseason, but the Cowboys are currently the only Big 12 team yet to win a conference game.
Meanwhile, Arizona State (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) was selected to finish in the basement in most preseason polls but is 5-2 and has been one of the surprise stories in the conference.
Arizona State enters as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under of 57.
Read on for my Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Prediction, Picks
- Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State +3
My Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State best bet is on the Cowboys to cover the spread with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 / -110 | -190 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 / -110 | +155 |
- Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Point Spread: Arizona State -4.5
- Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Moneyline: Arizona State ML -190 · Oklahoma State ML +155
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Preview
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Surprise in the Desert
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has done a heck of a job in Year 2 in Tempe. The Sun Devils have found balance on both sides of the ball and should get quarterback Sam Leavitt back for this one.
Leavitt had been great all season, before getting hurt late against Utah and then missing the Cincinnati game which was ASU's second loss.
Running back Cam Skattebo has been a total difference maker for the ASU offense both rushing it and catching passes out of the backfield.
Skattebo could be in for a big night facing an Oklahoma State defense that has really struggled to tackle. The Pokes will have to wrap up much better if they want to contain one of the most elusive ball-carriers in the entire country in Ollie Gordon II.
On the other side of the ball, the ASU defense has been just OK.
The Sun Devils have been solid in stopping the run, ranking inside the top 45 in both Rush Success allowed and Line Yards.
Where some opponents have had success against them has been through the air. Both Texas Tech's Behren Morton and Kansas' Jalon Daniels were able to move the ball down the field consistently with chunk plays to open receivers.
Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman may be inconsistent at times, but he does have a solid herd of wide receivers at his disposal — like Brennan Presley, who can make plays in space.
Getting pressure on an immobile Bowman will be important in forcing the Cowboys into punting situations.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview: Looking for First Big 12 Win
When it rains it pours for the Cowboys in 2024.
The Collin Oliver injury was a brutal blow to the OSU defense, and then when linebacker Nick Martin also got hurt, things really took a turn for the worst.
Those were clearly the two most important pieces of the Cowboy defense, and their absences have led to the Pokes getting run all over by opposing offenses week in and week out.
Just look at some of these metrics. Out of 134 FBS teams, OSU ranks 100th in Rush Success allowed, 123rd in Line Yards, and 101st in Defensive Quality Drives.
Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo has been unable to make key adjustments, and it has all led to a five-game losing streak.
The Cowboys have been much more competitive in their last two games after the bye, however, nearly beating undefeated BYU in Provo and had a chance late last week against Baylor.
I don't think this team is done yet, and there's no questioning the fact that there is still plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball. All five starting offensive linemen are seniors with tons of starts, Presley is one of the best wideouts in the conference, and Gordon is the reigning Doak Walker Award winner.
There are plenty of paths for OSU to move the ball against a mediocre ASU defense. It starts with finding a rhythm in the running game, which has been hard to establish since Mike Gundy's team has found itself trailing right away in so many games.
Bowman must take care of the ball, and if he does, OSU can make its way up and down the field.
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 27 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 101 | |
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 82 | |
| Quality Drives | 107 | 78 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 128 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 108 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 117 | 66 |
| Middle 8 | 12 | 68 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (63) | 23.8 (9) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (10) | 43% (120) |
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Pick & Prediction
Despite the 0-5 start, I don't believe this Oklahoma State team has fully mailed it in for the year. It helps that it's Homecoming night in Stillwater with throwback uniforms to the Oklahoma A&M days.
Additionally, the Pokes are still alive for a bowl game given the 3-0 nonconference campaign. They must win three of their final four.
Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling we see the Cowboys come out razor-sharp for this one and grab the lead right out of the gates.
ASU will score its share of points against a decimated Cowboy defense, but I think Gordon, Presley and company can make enough plays to help OSU hang around in this one and have a good chance of pulling off the outright upset.
Give me the home dog in a game I think OSU wins to keep its 18-year bowl streak alive.
Pick: Oklahoma State +3
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Betting Trends
- 56% of bets and 58% of the money are on OK State to cover the spread
- 74% of bets and 54% of the money on the moneyline are on Arizona St to win outright
- 59% of bets and 61% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Arizona State vs Oklahoma State Weather
