If there was ever a game to buy low on a Big 12 team, it's this one.
However, the challenge is figuring out which side to back as the Arizona Wildcats (3-5) take on the UCF Knights (3-5) at the "Bounce House." Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Arizona comes into this matchup having lost four straight. Its talent on paper just hasn't resulted in success on the field. Despite recent results, the Wildcats' offensive talent can't be discounted in the right matchup.
The Knights have faced similar results, having lost their past five games. The KJ Jefferson experience hasn't panned out and Gus Malzahn has been searching for an answer at quarterback.
So, which side will get back on track in this one? Let's dig into my Arizona vs. UCF predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Arizona vs. UCF Odds, Pick
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 56 -110 / -110 | +190 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 56 -110 / -110 | -225 |
- Arizona vs UCF spread: UCF -6
- Arizona vs. UCF over/under: 56 points
- Arizona vs. UCF moneyline: UCF -225
- Arizona vs UCF pick: UCF -6
My Arizona vs UCF best bet is on the Knights spread, with the best line currently available on FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona Wildcats vs UCF Knights Preview
This rough run for the Arizona Wildcats has been disappointing. Their passing attack has been forced to play with little margin for error, and the defense hasn't held up its end of the bargain.
On paper, it's not like Noah Fifita has played horribly. He's been great at getting the ball to one of the nation's best wideouts in Tetairoa McMillan, but when it's not gone to McMillan, it's been going to the defense. Fifita is sporting an 11:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Wildcats' offense has become one-dimensional. The offensive line can't get a push up front to run the ball and the team's trailing game scripts have made its attack predictable for opposing defenses.
That will be the case again against UCF. The Knights will hold a big edge in the trenches, and their secondary is not as bad as their 116th rank in completion percentage allowed shows.
UFC ranks 57th in PFF's coverage grades and 89th in Pass Success Rate allowed, which is on par with Arizona's rank of 88 in Pass Success Rate. While we will likely see flashes from the Wildcats, consistency and urgency will once again lead to overall struggles offensively.
I touched on the Knights' quarterback hunt in the open, and we may not know who will be under center until the first series. We've seen Malzahn trust freshman Jacurri Brown over the past few weeks, but he hit the bench when last week's game against was out of reach and Dylan Rizk looked good in his limited snaps.
Brown is the more mobile of the two, but Rizk has more pocket presence and looks to be the more effective through the air, while also displaying some scrambling ability. Regardless, the Knights will control this game because of their rushing attack, which is led by RJ Harvey.
Harvey has been feasting on opposing defenses this season, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and racking up 13 touchdowns. He has been supported by the great effort of the UCF offensive line.
The Knights rank fifth in Offensive Line Yards and will push around an Arizona defense that ranks 92nd in yards per rush allowed. Look for UCF to motor its way down the field on the ground, while potentially getting a boost through the air if Rizk is under center.
Arizona vs UCF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and UCF match up statistically:
Arizona Offense vs. UCF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 89 |  |
| Havoc | 74 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 91 | 89 | |
UCF Offense vs. Arizona Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 113 | |
| Quality Drives | 61 | 93 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 100 | 70 |
| PFF Coverage | 78 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 61 |
| Middle 8 | 82 | 68 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (83) | 24.4 (20) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (123) | 65% (9) |
Arizona vs UCF Betting Prediction
The spread for this matchup has held firm throughout the week, and every move off of six has been quickly bet back into place. Arizona clearly has the potential offensively, but the Wildcats are severely outmatched on the defensive end, and UCF's high-powered ground game will allow it to control the clock and put together multiple methodical drives.
That will create a game script in which Arizona has struggled, and UCF's secondary can sit back and make Fifita beat them. Back the Knights to get back on track.
Pick: UCF -6 (Play to -6.5)
UCF vs Arizona Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Arizona takes on UCF on Saturday, Nov. 2, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Arizona vs UCF Betting Trends
- Arizona is 1-4 in its last five games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in two of Arizona's last five games.
- UCF is 4-1 in its last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in four of UCF's last five games.
UCF vs. Arizona Weather
