The Arkansas Razorbacks reached into the history books to pull one of their former head coaches as the new offensive coordinator. Bobby Petrino takes center stage in Little Rock on Thursday night, leading the Hogs offense.
Head coach Sam Pittman has been on the hot seat for nearly a calendar year, firing new coordinator Dan Enos early in the 2023 season before leading Arkansas to a win total that resembled the Chad Morris era.
Pittman thrived in his first three seasons with former head coach Barry Odom on staff. Now, Petrino is tasked with the same responsibility while jump-starting a lifeless offense.
The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions will make the short bus trip to Fayetteville for their second-ever game against the Razorbacks. The Lions lost the 2021 iteration, 45-3, in War Memorial Stadium and continue to have a history of underachieving in FCS.
As a member of the SWAC, UAPB has just three division titles and one conference championship since the turn of the century. Head coach Alonzo Hampton enters his second season with Lions after finishing 2-9 with wins over Texas Southern and Division II Miles College.
UAPB vs Arkansas Prediction
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas Pick: 1H Over 31 or Better
My Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas best bet is on the first-half over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UAPB vs Arkansas Odds
| UAPB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+49.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | N/A |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-49.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | N/A |
- UAPB vs Arkansas Point Spread: UAPB +49.5 (-110) · Arkansas -49.5(-110)
- UAPB vs Arkansas Total: Over/Under 57.5
- UAPB vs Arkansas Moneyline: N/A
UAPB vs Arkansas Preview
When Arkansas-Pine Bluff Has the Ball
Arkansas-Pine Bluff will introduce 50 new players to the roster this season, receiving one of the lowest marks in FCS experience heading into 2024.
The good news is the lone returning quarterback on the roster is starter Mekhi Hagens. The redshirt junior attempted 114 passes with a skyrocketing pressure rate of 43% on 152 dropbacks.
The Lions are not expected to find any efficiency or explosiveness through the air, considering Hagen completed just 12-of-43 attempts beyond 10 yards.
The main concern for the Arkansas defense will be UAPB's RPO package that led to a rushing rank of 73rd, a number that lifted a total offense rank of 106th.
Lead running back Johness Davis returns with 386 yards on 78 rushing attempts with an average of 3.5 yards after contact. There's a chance for an explosive run, as Davis averaged a double-digit gain on 18% of attempts.
The only returning offensive line starter is center Rolando Jones, but the senior was flagged twice as much as any other blocker in 2023.
Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams returns for a second season in Fayetteville, bringing a nickel package that will show three- and four-man fronts depending on down and distance.
Head coach Sam Pittman made the hire before last season because of Williams' ultra-aggressive nature and ability to connect with players. Arkansas ended the season with a 37% blitz rate, generating a high 15% success rate in creating Havoc.
The Razorbacks massively improved in tackles for loss and third-down defense a season ago. Edge Landon Jackson and interior Eric Gregory return to a defensive line that will continue to create a top-40 Havoc rate.
Arkansas' 2023 strength profile. Photo via SportSource Analytics.
When Arkansas Has the Ball
Injuries have piled up on the Arkansas offense as fall camp has progressed. A handful of starters were held out of the scrimmages that were open to the media.
While Arkansas' depth chart has the names of players expected to start, a few notable players will not dress or take any action on the field.
The running back room runs five players deep, but Rashod Dubinion is doubtful for the game. Utah transfer Ja’Quinden Jackson will get the start, but he was limited in practices throughout August.
The Hogs will be in good shape with Rodney Hill and Braylen Russell getting carries, but the health of the rushing attack must be monitored before a Week 2 trip to Stillwater.
While the offensive line is expected to be a strength for Petrino’s offense, starter Patrick Kutas will not play in this game. The junior was expected to be the primary contributor at left guard but will undergo an MRI on Friday.
E’Marion Harris will take over the spot on the offensive line, drawing heavy praise from Petrino.
Boise State transfer quarterback Taylen Green is expected to play at a high level in the SEC, but his roommate and projected top target, Andrew Armstrong, has not had a full workout in fall camp as of this writing.
There are 39 new players on the Arkansas roster, but health will limit the Razorbacks' options in an offensive attack. There's every expectation that Petrino’s offense will be on full display, as the coach will be on the sideline with direct communication to Green.
The weapons remaining for the Razorback offense are capable of creating chunk plays and quick scores in the Petrino offense. Isaiah Sategna is the fastest target on the team and gives Arkansas an explosive element that led to a top-10 ranking in SP+ special teams a season ago.
Tight end Luke Hasz was on track to be a candidate for Freshman of the Year, but an injury against Texas A&M ended his season.
Finally, Monte Harrison was listed second on the depth chart at receiver. The 29-year-old has hit home runs for the Marlins and Angels but now gets the chance to jump-start his football career while providing leadership in the locker room.
UAPB loses six of its top seven tacklers from a defense that ranked 115th out of 122 teams in total defense. The red-zone defense allowed teams to score on 90% of attempts, with no discrepancy between limiting opponents' rushing or passing attacks.
The Lions allowed 33 points per game against a schedule of SWAC and Division II opponents, so Petrino should have success no matter which players are on the field.
My UAPB vs Arkansas Pick & Prediction
Pittman gave credit to Hampton at his weekly presser, communicating the great respect he has for his fellow head coach in the state of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks had a long history of avoiding in-state schools under previous administrations due to the fear of losing the fan base, generally opting for directional schools outside of the state.
Notably, Pittman has a history of not running up the score in the second half against inferior opponents.
Against this UAPB team in 2021, the Hogs generated 45 first-half points before ultimately winning the game, 45-3. Western Carolina came to Fayetteville to open the 2023 season, and the Razorbacks led, 35-3, at halftime. The Hogs would go on to score just 14 offensive points in the second half against the Catamounts.
Even when the season was in a downward spiral in November 2023, Arkansas generated 34 first-half points compared to 13 second-half points against Florida International.
Arkansas should be able to name the score against a team that has 50 new players, a depleted defense and an RPO offense that returns only one offensive line starter.
The full-game spread and total will hang on the Lions' ability to avoid a pick-six or scoop-and-score on offense while defending plenty of rushing attempts from the Hogs in the fourth quarter. While Petrino's fourth-quarter aggressiveness is unknown, the offense will likely run base sets and vertical routes.
If Arkansas wants to find success against Oklahoma State, counter run concepts and play-action passes will not be on film. With the Cowboys in mind, look for Petrino to run a limited route tree that generates explosives through the air and potentially forces Oklahoma State to start the game in max coverage situations.
With two key running backs and a starting guard being limited, look for Arkansas to score as much as possible before considering second-half under at halftime.
Pick: 1H Over 31 or Better
How to Watch UAPB vs Arkansas Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AK |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
UAPB vs Arkansas Betting Trends
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff is receiving 85% of the bets and 85% of the money ahead of Thursday's game.
- The under has landed 53% of the bets and 55% of the money.
UAPB vs Arkansas Weather
