Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 10 and our Arkansas vs Ole Miss picks and college football predictions for which team will cover the spread.
Ole Miss is a 7.5-point favorite on the spread and a -300 favorite on the moneyline with a 54.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Let's learn how to bet Arkansas at Ole Miss for NCAAF Week 10 on Saturday, November 2.
Arkansas at Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Lines
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 54 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 54 -110o / -110u | -290 |
- Arkansas vs. Ole Miss spread: Arkansas +7.5 (-115) | Ole Miss -7.5 (-105)
- Arkansas vs. Ole Miss over/under: 54 points
- Arkansas vs. Ole Miss moneyline: Arkansas ML (+235) | Ole Miss (-290)
Why Arkansas Can Cover the Spread
Can I ask a serious question?
What evidence do we have that Ole Miss is any good? Because it beat up on Middle Tennessee State?
According to our Action Network Power Ratings, the Rebels have played three teams ranked in the top 30 nationally — they are 1-2 against those teams.
Arkansas has played four of the of the top 30 teams and is 2-2 against them.
The Razorbacks' win over No. 4 Tennessee is more impressive than anything the Rebels have done this season. Ole Miss is propped up by a high preseason ranking and a large offseason budget.
If I blindly asked you who has the better offense, Ole Miss would probably be a no-brainer, right?
Well, it’s actually Arkansas, which ranks ninth nationally in Success Rate, ahead of Ole Miss at 11th. The Razorbacks have also been more explosive this season.
The Hogs took a massive step forward by taking a step back and turning to old friend Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. In just one season, Arkansas has gone from averaging 326.5 yards per game to 482.5 yards per game and from 26.6 points per game to 33.3.
Quarterback Taylen Green transferred to Fayetteville after winning a Mountain West Championship at Boise State. He has run this offense to perfection, averaging 257 passing yards and 50 rushing yards per game with 16 total touchdowns.
Star running back Ja’Quinden Jackson is expected to miss his second straight game, which is a significant loss.
However, this team still pieced together 359 rushing yards and 9.7 yards per carry last week without him. Green ran for 79 yards and a touchdown, and Braylen Russell and Rashod Dubinion ran for 175 and 98 yards, respectively.
The offense is well-balanced, ranking in the top 25 nationally in both Pass and Rush Success Rates. They move the ball consistently, and they can also pick up big plays.
Ole Miss has excellent defense numbers, but it has only played one remotely competent offense in LSU, and the Tigers dropped 29 points on 421 total yards.
If you throw out your preseason expectations and look at the results on the field and numbers from actual games this season, these are too very evenly-matched teams that should play a competitive game right down to the end.
Why Ole Miss Can Cover the Spread
Arkansas is a great story. I love how Bobby Petrino has adjusted the offense. Taylen Green is playing at an elite level – he’s so fun to watch.
That said, Lane Kiffin’s offseason portal grabs have hit, especially on the defensive side of the football.
Texas A&M transfer Walter Nolen, Florida transfer Princely Umanmielen, and returning veteran Jared Ivey are three of the best defensive linemen in the FBS. Arkansas transfer Chris Paul Jr. ranks third among FBS linebackers in Pro Football Focus’s Defensive grades, and he will be motivated on Saturday against his former team. Alabama transfer Trey Amos has been solid at the top cornerback spot, and returning veteran safety Trey Washington is on pace for his best season ever.
The Rebels are a legit top-15 defense by every metric. Finally, Lane Kiffin has built a defense Oxford can be proud of.
One specific metric should decide the game's outcome – Havoc.
The Rebels rank first nationally in Havoc rate. The rebuilt front seven leads the nation in tackles for loss (81, 10 more than second-place Duke) while ranking fifth in sack rate (10.5%). The Rebels rank top-five nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
While Green has been phenomenal, he’s always been vulnerable in broken pockets. He posted a 39.9 PFF Passing grade under pressure at Boise State last year with one big-time throw to four turnover-worthy plays. This season, his adjusted completion percentage drops 20% when facing pressure.
Unfortunately, the offensive line isn’t doing him any favors. The Hogs' front five has allowed 114 pressures on 293 dropbacks, the fourth-most nationally. Right tackle Keyshawn Blackstock has allowed the most pressures of any FBS tackle (28) – Ivey will feast against him for 60 minutes on Saturday.
The Razorbacks rank 91st nationally in Havoc allowed, and that’s where they’ll lose the game.
Ole Miss will live in Arkansas’ backfield, forcing Green into mistakes – he already has 13 turnover-worthy plays this year, posting three last week against Mississippi State and four against Texas A&M in Week 5 – and shutting down the run against a Ja’Quinden Jackson-less Razorback ground attack.
I don’t expect Arkansas to move the ball efficiently. I expect the Razorbacks to make critical mistakes and give Jaxson Dart short fields. And I’m banking on an Ole Miss blowout in Fayetteville.
Why Razorbacks Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Have the portal grabs hit?
Is this defense legit?
Or have the just played a collection of clown cars?
Look at the Success Rate rankings for the teams Ole Miss has faced this season — 110th, 68th, 83rd, 78th, 103rd, 33rd, and 123rd.
The only opponent ranking in the country's top half on offense is LSU (33rd), which smoked the Rebels.
Now, the Rebels hit the road to face a top-10 offense. The defense could be legit, but we're still guessing. Everybody thought Tennessee's defense was elite until Arkansas dropped 430 yards on the Vols.
These teams faced one common opponent — LSU — twice last month. Ole Miss gave up 337 passing yards and 421 total yards at 5.6 yards per play. Arkansas allowed 235 passing yards and 393 total yards at an average of 5.5 yards per play.
I’m not saying that means anything, but it certainly is interesting.
Even if Green makes a mistake, he can make up for it quickly. Arkansas ranks 33rd in Explosiveness and Green leads the SEC with 16 big-time throws. Andrew Armstrong leads the team with 49 catches this season, and 30 have gone for at least 10 yards.
Arkansas moves the ball consistently, is explosive, is good on third downs, and will be the most difficult task the Ole Miss defense has faced.
Are the Rebels elite? You better hope so.
Why Rebels Are Better Bet
McGrath: How can these two be evenly matched when the Razorbacks don’t play defense?
In my introduction, I waxed poetic about Kiffin’s rebuilt defense, but we can’t forget that Dart is still an elite quarterback leading a top-15 passing offense (10th in EPA per Pass, 13th in Pass Success Rate).
Dart leads the nation in yards per attempt (11) and the SEC in completion percentage (71%). His top target, Tre Harris, leads all Power 4 receivers in yards (987).
Meanwhile, the Hogs secondary is regressing with each passing week. They’ve slipped to 84th nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed and 99th in Pass Success Rate allowed. They rank 125th in PFF’s Coverage grades.
Cornerbacks Jaheim Singletary, Marquise Robinson and Doneiko Slaughter have been consistently beaten over the top, allowing a 61% completion rate when targeted for 880 total passing yards at over seven yards per target – they’ve chipped in 12 DPIs for good measure.
Arkansas ranks among the nation’s worst teams in contesting catches, while Dart ranks among the top 25 quarterbacks in on-target rate. He’s going to carve up the Razorback secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey.
The Rebels can score and prevent teams from scoring. The Razorbacks can do one of those things. Ole Miss also has the second-best special teams SP+ rating, while Arkansas doesn’t crack the top 40.
How are these teams evenly matched?
I’m not overly impressed by the Rebels’ victories either. Still, they lost the LSU game in overtime despite out-gaining the Tigers by 40 yards, while Arkansas lost to LSU by 24 at home.
The Hogs also have a gross loss to 3-5 Oklahoma State on their record, and their win over the consistently regressing Nico Iamaleava has aged poorly.
Why Razorbacks Will Cover
Ianniello: Similar to my argument about the Rebels' defense, is Dart an elite quarterback, or did he just light up bad teams?
Dart looked dominant during the non-conference schedule, but since the start of SEC play, it has been a different story.
Over the four conference games for Ole Miss, Dart has thrown just three touchdowns in four games. He has identical turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws and is completing just 61% of his passes.
To make matters worse, Harris missed last week's game with an injury and is questionable against Arkansas. He has been the Rebels' entire passing attack, and things are dropping off a cliff behind him.
As much as we think about Ole Miss as this fun, explosive passing attack, the Rebels have always been a team that relies on establishing the run. The offense operates through Henry Parrish, but he’ll have a difficult matchup on Saturday.
The Razorbacks’ defense has been elite against the run this season. The Hogs rank ninth nationally in Rush Success Rate. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per play on the ground.
Star edge rusher Landon Jackson is the best player on defense, both in getting after the passer and run defense. He forms a terrific front with defensive tackle Eric Gregory, and behind them is a strong tackler, linebacker Xavian Sorey.
If this defense can slow the Rebels run game down, Dart will need to play much better than he has over the last month.
Why Rebels Will Cover
McGrath: Oh, so you want to play that game?
Hogs’ opponents this year by national rank in EPA per Play allowed:
- Oklahoma State: 116th
- UAB: 104th
- Auburn: 40th
- Texas A&M: 31st
- Tennessee: 2nd
- LSU: 77th
- Mississippi State: 129th
While their performance against Tennessee was impressive, they only finished with 19 points because they failed in scoring opportunities (2.8 points per drive past the opposing 40-yard line).
They managed only 330 yards at four yards per play against Auburn. They posted -0.13 EPA per Play against Texas A&M (24th percentile among single-game performances).
And you failed to mention that the Razorbacks’ “elite” defense managed 280 total yards against LSU! They rushed for 38 yards on 19 carries!
Otherwise, Arkansas’ statistical profile is buoyed by last week’s 673-yard, 58-point performance against the nation’s fifth-worst offense. Can the Hogs even move the ball?
This week screams letdown against a much better, more talented opponent.
Arkansas vs Ole Miss Picks and Predictions
Arkansas +7.5
Ianniello: Ole Miss is propped up by high-priced preseason expectations and beating down a horrible non-conference schedule.
Since SEC play began, Ole Miss hasn't looked anything special, and I am not convinced the Rebels are as “elite” as people continue to act. They have yet to prove anything against a remotely competent offense.
Arkansas, on the other hand, was expected to slide to the bottom of the standings, with Coach Pittman sitting in one of the hottest seats in America.
Instead, this team has already exceeded its preseason win total and continues to be underrated in the market. The Hogs are 6-2 against the spread and 4-1 as an underdog this season.
Throw out your preseason rankings. Forget what you expected from these two teams. Based on what we have seen on the field between these two teams, especially over the last month, these two teams are not a touchdown apart.
Ole Miss -7.5
McGrath: Week 10 is a perfect sell-high spot on Green and the Hogs following last week’s offensive explosion. The dual-threat quarterback will wilt under some real pressure.
Meanwhile, Dart and Co. should have no issues slicing and dicing Arkansas’ hapless secondary.
Coach Kiffin shows up against inferior opponents. Lane-led teams are 36-27 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more. His Rebels are 14-9 ATS in that spot.
I smell a blowout.
