The Army Black Knights take on the Navy Midshipmen in Baltimore, Maryland, on Saturday, Dec. 13. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
Navy is favored by -6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. Army, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 38.5 points.
Here’s my Army vs. Navy prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 13.
Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Picks
- Army vs. Navy Pick: Over 38 or Better
My Navy vs. Army best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Army vs Navy Odds, Line, Spread
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- Army vs Navy Spread: Navy -6, Army +6
- Army vs Navy Over/Under: 38.5
- Army vs Navy Moneyline: Army ML +210, Navy ML -260
Army vs Navy Preview
Army Black Knights
Army came on strong to end the season, winning five of its last seven games. The surprising factor in those wins was the defense, which allowed an average of 17.7 points per game in the second half of the season.
The nickel defense excels in limiting ground explosives and also finished as the least penalized team in FBS. However, the Black Knights were also outgained from a net yards-per-play perspective against their final four American Conference opponents.
With the focus of this game being the rush defense, Army comes in notably behind the FBS average against a number of run concepts. Defensive coordinator Nate Woody's "East Coast 3-4" defense has had several issues with inside zone, power and counter.
There's reason to think Navy will be able to move the trench against an Army defense that's bottom-25 in Stuff Rate and Line Yards.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Cale Hellums will direct an offense that's one of the best in the nation in creating methodical drives.
The most successful rush concept for the Black Knights features gap blocking assignments for the offensive line with 21 personnel in the backfield.
Hellums is joined by the elusive Noah Short, who averages 3.2 yards after first contact to go along with 12 explosive runs.
When it comes to props, note that Hellums has scored 15 of Army's 25 rushing touchdowns this season.
Navy Midshipmen
Navy quarterback Blake Horvath had another outstanding season with 23 all-purpose touchdowns, but fumbles continue to plague the offense. After losing 12 fumbles last season, Horvath lost 13 fumbles this year, including three in the season finale against Memphis.
Navy still comes in as a top-25 team in Havoc allowed thanks to the low number of tackles for loss and passing attempts.
The top ranking in explosive plays can be attributed to 48 explosive rushing gains by Horvath and running back Alex Tecza.
Navy has utilized eight different combinations of run concepts and personnel on at least 60 rushing attempts. However, a two-running back set with power concepts has been the most successful and explosive for the Midshipmen. Counter and concepts with pulling linemen are also high Success Rate options for the Mids.
The offense is hardly ever stopped from gaining first downs, owning top-10 rankings in Quality Drives and Offensive Momentum Killer Rate.
Meanwhile, Navy's nickel defense has been one of the worst in tackling, per PFF. There's an expectation that Army's play-action pass attempts will create explosives, but the Navy defense does have better overall numbers against the run.
The issue comes down to run concepts. The Midshipmen don't have much success against outside zone read, which is a staple of Army's rushing attack.
Army vs Navy NCAAF Pick
Action Network's projection for the total between Army and Navy comes in at 46, lining up for another annual over bet after nearly two decades of low-scoring games.
The final score in 2024, a 31-13 Navy win, marked the first time the series saw more than 41 points since 2005.
One of the biggest reasons that regression to the over is expected comes with an expanded playbook. Army-Navy used to be a "line up and bash" triple-option event. Now, the offenses have implemented more power and counter concepts with multiple running backs.
Horvath leads a Navy offense that uses power with 21 personnel as its heaviest concept, producing an explosive on one of every five attempts. Army owns a 39% Success Rate against power concepts with a mark outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed.
Those factors indicate that Navy will have methodical and explosive drives — good news for an offense that ranks 13th in red-zone touchdown rate.
The same advantages exist for Hellums when Army has possession. Man or gap blocking assignments with a two-running back set have been the go-to for the Black Knights all season, and the Midshipmen defense has a low 44% Success Rate against those concepts.
Army also prefers to use outside zone read with multiple players in the backfield, a concept Navy has just a 44% Success Rate defending. Furthermore, the Midshipmen defense gives up an explosive on 17% of opponent attempts.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Navy as a touchdown favorite, which is near the current market offering.
The better bet is on a total that should be on the higher side of the key number of 41. Look for each rushing attack to produce successful, methodical drives mixed with play-action explosives to create numerous scoring attempts.
Pick: Over 38 or Better
