The Auburn Tigers (2-3) head to Athens to take on Kirby Smart and his No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Both teams are coming off tough losses, but the similarities between Hugh Freeze’s outfit and the Georgia Bulldogs end there.
Auburn has been strong on defense in the early going, but the quarterback play has been outrageously turnover prone. The Tigers have given away multiple winnable games, including last week against Oklahoma, 27-21.
By its standards, Georgia has had a full season’s worth of rough spots in the first month (a slog against Kentucky and a first half against Alabama were both forgettable).
But in the second half against the Tide, the Bulldogs were their usual dominant selves, measuring up to their opening weekend performance against Clemson.
Georgia has every advantage on paper, including home field. It's -23 on the spread and -2200 on the moneyline, and the total for the game is sitting at 52 points.
Here's my Auburn vs. Georgia predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Auburn vs Georgia Odds, Lines, Pick
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -2200 |
- Auburn vs Georgia spread: Georgia -21.5
- Auburn vs Georgia over/under: 51.5 points
- Auburn vs Georgia moneyline: Georgia -2200
- Auburn vs Georgia pick: Georgia 1H -13.5
Auburn Football vs Georgia Football Preview
Auburn Football
Freeze’s Auburn outfit has had a rough start to the 2024 season. While the Tigers have feasted on two cupcakes to make their box score stats look respectable, a deeper look into their metrics shows an inconsistent and disaster-prone offense.
The Tigers have lost all three of their matchups against power-conference opponents and have only averaged 16.6 points per game in those contests.
Quarterback Payton Thorne is back in the driver’s seat after previously being benched for throwing four interceptions against Cal.
Auburn’s offense checks in at 44th percentile in EPA/Play. Despite a talented lead back in Jarquez Hunter — who's averaging 6.7 yards per carry — the team’s rushing effectiveness lags towards the middle of the pack in Rush EPA/Play.
Auburn is getting no push from the big uglies, ranking in the bottom half of the country in line yards.
Another sore spot is Havoc allowed. Obviously the interceptions are drawing most of the ire – especially from the head coach, who's been quick to throw his signal caller under the bus in his press conference.
Auburn’s offense is in the 22nd percentile in Havoc allowed, which is the lower tier in the country. Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann must be licking his chops to unleash his Dawgs; his defense is in the 91st percentile in Havoc creation.
Where the Tigers have been good is creating big plays through the air – 84th percentile in passing explosives. This plays directly into Georgia’s hands, as the Dawgs are even better (91st percentile) in preventing passing explosives.
Auburn’s defense is a funhouse mirror of its offense: above average in most areas except pass explosives, where it ranks in the bottom quarter of the country.
The Tigers' PFF coverage grade also shows this, ranking 78th as a team. With such a leaky secondary, the ability to create Havoc is lacking.
Georgia Football
The Dawgs are once again the class of college football. Even in a loss last week to Alabama, Georgia took an incredible first punch from Alabama, which deployed a near-perfect bespoke game plan in the first half.
And then the Dawgs made adjustments, found their groove and methodically went to work, until you looked up and realized they actually held a lead in the fourth quarter.
Loss be damned, it was hard not to be impressed with both teams in Tuscaloosa last weekend.
Georgia is seventh in EPA margin on offense and fourth on defense.
The rushing game is a tick below its normal world-beating form — an injury to star guard Tate Ratledge doesn’t help — but it's still in the 81st percentile in EPA/rush. A “down” area for Georgia is still one of the best in the country.
Quarterback Carson Beck looked lost in the first half against Alabama, as the Tide deployed some cover-zero looks they previously hadn’t shown.
And then he figured it all out, and his impressive second half showed why his Dawgs are so dangerous.
At 13th in Finishing Drives, they make the most of their scoring chances.
Auburn vs Georgia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Georgia match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 35 | |
Georgia Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 49 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 77 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 16 |  |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 30 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 78 | 56 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 62 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 12 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.5 (19) | 27.9 (78) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (89) | 43% (115) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Auburn vs Georgia Prediction
Bookmakers don’t think that The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry will be much of a contest, making Georgia 24-point favorites. It has arguably the best roster in the country, a veteran quarterback and championship pedigree.
The Bulldogs face a rival with a few good pieces but some serious flaws (a penchant for self-destruction and questionable coaching).
This game is a great test of headspace. Georgia is mad after a frustrating loss, is coached by one of the best motivators in the recent history and is looking to defend its home turf against an arch rival.
Auburn is broken by turnovers, has given away three winnable games in a span of a month and gets humiliated by its head coach in public every time he ends up on a lectern.
I think Georgia plays with its hair on fire. I think the Dawgs, even with a few key injuries on the defensive line, can outclass Auburn in the trenches.
While Auburn might hit some big plays through the air, ultimately it'll be one-dimensional and mistake-prone. That’s the kind of team Smart and Schumann eat for breakfast.
I’m going to take the Dawgs in the first half and avoid garbage time antics. The line is -13.5 at most shops right now, and I’ll take it at -14 or better.
Pick: Georgia 1H -13.5 (Play to -14)
How to Watch Auburn vs Georgia Live: Streaming, Channel, Location
| Location: | Sanford Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Georgia vs Auburn Betting Trends
- 64% of the bets and 90% of the money is on Auburn to cover the spread against Georgia.
- 89% of the bets and 88% of the money is on the over to hit.
Georgia vs Auburn Weather
