The Baylor Bears (2-4, 0-3 Big 12) will travel to Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1, 3-0) on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff in the Big 12 matchup is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2 from Jones AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech is off to a great start this year and is a 6.5-point home favorite for this in-state rivalry. The over/under on this game is set at 56 points, as a moderate amount of scoring is expected.
The Red Raiders have been plenty impressive this season, but I think there may be room to fade them in this spot.
Without giving away too much, let’s dive into my Texas Tech vs. Baylor predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Baylor vs Texas Tech Odds, Lines, Pick
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 56 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 56 -110o / -110u | -218 |
- Baylor vs Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -6.5 (-108)
- Baylor vs Texas Tech over/under: 56 points
- Baylor vs Texas Tech moneyline: Texas Tech -218
- Baylor vs Texas Tech pick: Baylor Team Total Over 24.5 Points
My Baylor vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Bears to reach over 24.5 points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs Texas Tech Preview
Baylor Football
Baylor is 2-4 on the season, and Dave Aranda may be on his last legs as coach of the Bears. They are looking for their first conference win of the season and will need to overcome being heavy road underdogs to do it this week.
At the beginning of the season, offense was the biggest issue for Baylor. Its last three games have all resulted in losses to Colorado, BYU and Iowa State, but these have been the Bears' best stretch offensively this year.
The main reason for this is quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who's averaging 0.16 EPA per dropback since taking over for Dequan Finn, who averaged -0.37 EPA per dropback.
Baylor doesn’t look impressive when looking at full-season numbers, as it ranks just 84th in Offensive Success Rate and 108th in Offensive Finishing Drives. It's also 79th in Pass Success Rate and 89th in Pass PPA for the season.
However, the Bears have posted an above-average Success Rate in each of their last two games, and I expect them to look better coming off the bye.
The Baylor defense has been spectacular this season, ranking second in Success Rate allowed and 12th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Bears have been especially good against the pass, where they are fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed and third in Pass PPA allowed.
They're also fourth in Rush Success Rate allowed but only 47th in Rush PPA allowed because they rank outside of the top 100 in Rush Explosiveness allowed this year.
Texas Tech Football
The Red Raiders are off to one of their best starts in years. They are now 5-1 on the season and undefeated in conference play as they look to make a run toward the Big 12 Championship.
Their record is impressive, but I do have some concerns with this team based on their strength of schedule faced to this point. All three of their Big 12 wins have come by one possession against three of the lower-tier teams in the league in Arizona State, Cincinnati and Arizona.
In its lone loss this year, Texas Tech was brutalized by Washington State — a solid opponent but not a top-tier team.
Texas Tech ranks 38th in Success Rate, 14th in Explosiveness and 25th in Finishing Drives this season. It passes the ball 59% of the time and is 57th in Pass Success Rate and 29th in Pass PPA.
Quarterback Behren Morton is averaging 0.19 EPA per dropback this season and has 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions, as he has avoided turning the ball over.
On the ground, this team ranks 31st in Rush Success Rate and 40th in Rush PPA.
Tahj Brooks has fueled this success on the ground, toting the ball 121 times for 663 yards and seven touchdowns on the campaign.
The defense for Texas Tech has been its biggest issue this year. It ranks 81st in Success Rate allowed, 97th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Explosiveness allowed. It's also only 110th in Havoc generated, as it hasn't helped its cause with big plays.
Texas Tech’s passing defense ranks 85th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 100th in Pass PPA allowed and 126th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. The Red Raiders are 128th in PFF's Coverage grades and 93rd in PFF's Pass Rush grades.
They have been marginally better against the run, ranking 78th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 89th in Rush PPA Allowed but only 121st in Rush Explosiveness allowed. They sit 67th in PFF's Run Defense grades but only 124th in PFF's Tackling grades.
Baylor vs Texas Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Texas Tech match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 114 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 58 | |
| Quality Drives | 109 | 108 |  |
Texas Tech Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 63 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 124 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 128 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 55 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 50 | 33 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (14) | 23.9 (15) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (63) | 46% (105) |
Baylor vs Texas Tech Prediction
I think Baylor is undervalued in the market in this game in several ways.
I could take it to cover this spread and even to win this game outright, but I think my favorite way to play this matchup and the improvement I see in the Baylor offense is by taking its team total over 24.5 points.
The Bears have gone over this total every week this season besides against Utah and Iowa State, who both have top-15 defenses, according to SP+. Meanwhile, Texas Tech ranks 76th.
I’m putting faith in Robertson and Jake Spavital’s offense to come out firing in this game. They have a strong advantage against this Texas Tech defense and will be live in this game, putting plenty of points on the board in the process.
Pick: Baylor Team Total Over 24.5 (Play to -110)
Baylor vs Texas Tech Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location & How to Watch
| Location: | Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Baylor takes on Texas Tech in Lubbock at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Baylor vs Texas Tech Betting Trends
- 57% of bets and 71% of the money are on Texas Tech to cover the spread
- 98% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on Texas Tech to win outright
- 47% of bets and 79% of the money are on the over
Baylor vs Texas Tech Weather
