A big underdog in Tuesday’s bowl games has a great shot at winning outright, according to Bet Labs.
For Tuesday’s three-game college football slate, I’m profiling four picks overall, utilizing a variety of bowl game trends and PRO Systems.
Backtested, situational angles revealing strong win rates conveniently apply to all three games on the December 30 card:
- Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (3 p.m. ET)
- Tennessee vs. Illinois (6:30 p.m. ET)
- USC vs. TCU (10 p.m. ET)
One game involves a same-game spread and total pick. Another features PRO Projections that also support the same team as multiple systems to cover.
Let’s get into the sharpest picks and angles for every college football bowl game on Tuesday.
Bowl Game Picks: Smart Best Bets Tuesday for Every Game (December 30)
The same Bet Labs system that predicted East Carolina to beat Pitt is active Tuesday!
The “Contrarian Underdog” model flagged the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers as excellent moneyline value against Louisiana Tech to open the day.
Independence Bowl odds have Louisiana Tech at -9.5. Line movement has pushed the spread up 2.5 points from the opener.
Now’s the time to strike on the Chanticleers moneyline.
The “Contrarian Underdog” angle helps identify the sweet spot for upsets — and, more importantly for bettors, consistent ROI when backing plus-money picks. Through specific filters, we find that when underdogs priced between +4 and +13.5 have also been bet against by 2+ points, it creates an ideal window to attack the moneyline. Teams in this spread range remain within striking distance of an upset, and multi-point line moves help generate value.
This pattern carries a 36% win rate, which is significant given the long-term returns.
This system (and others below) was built by Action Director of Research Evan Abrams.
PRO Systems Pick: Coastal Carolina Moneyline
Next up are two picks in the Music City Bowl between Tennessee and Illinois. Odds are Tennessee -2.5, with a total of 61.5. Data supports taking the Fighting Illini to cover the spread, and the game to land under.
Tennessee is not a side bettors should rush to back in bowl games, according to PRO. Both the "Fade Bad D Favorites in Bowl Games" and "Fade High Scoring Teams" trends warn bettors against backing:
- Bowl favorites allowing 24+ points per game, and
Offenses averaging 35+ points per game.
Josh Heupel’s Tennessee Volunteers fit both profiles!
So far this bowl season, when a team matches both fade trends, they’re 0-3 against the spread (UNLV, South Florida and North Texas).
PRO Systems Pick: Illinois Spread
Shifting to the total, bettors with interest in Tennessee may prefer the over, and vice versa.
Naturally, with PRO Systems hinting at fading teams like Tennessee, the "Popular High Unders" PRO System shades an edge to the under.
Here’s a unique way to implement our public betting data into a profitable pattern.
Public bettors tend to favor the over in expected, high-scoring games. However, when totals are 59.5 or higher and 56% or more of the money is on the under — usually a sign of more respected action — these games tend to finish low scoring.
PRO Systems Pick: Illinois vs. Tennessee Under
Finally, USC is -6.5 vs. TCU in the Alamo Bowl. Systems and PRO Projections converge on value with the Horned Frogs to cover as touchdown-sized underdogs.
The “Fade Bad D Favorites” model that was active on Tennessee also flagged USC as a side to be cautious with.
Additionally, a data-driven system with a 67% win rate popped. It focuses on lopsided ticket counts in bowl games, identifying TCU as a strong match to cover the spread.
Projections also step in with support for TCU to stay within the number, as the PRO line makes the game closer to USC -4.8 than the current -6.5.
