The Missouri Tigers poked into the top 10 of both the AP and Coaches Poll this week. Eli Drinkwitz’s outfit built on the success of last season’s Cotton Bowl win, and his ball club is roaring with momentum right now.
The Tigers will hunt Pete Lembo’s Buffalo Bulls; the ace special teams coordinator is in the first year of a program rebuild in his second stint as a MAC head coach.
Both teams took down FCS prey last week, but the similarities end there. The Tigers are a mature, confident, playoff-caliber power-conference team hosting a MAC squad many pegged for the cellar.
Do the Tigers have what it takes to cover the spread of 34.5? Let’s get to my Buffalo vs. Missouri prediction.
Buffalo vs. Missouri Prediction
- Pick: Missouri -18.5 1H
My Buffalo vs. Missouri best bet is on the Tigers to cover the first-half line, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Buffalo vs. Missouri Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+33 -110 | 52 -110 / -110 | +3300 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-33 -110 | 52 -110 / -110 | -40000 |
- Point Spread: Buffalo +33 · Missouri -33
- Total: Over/Under 52
- Moneyline: Buffalo +3300 · Missouri -40000
Buffalo Bulls vs. Missouri Tigers Preview
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview: Rebuilding Mode
Lembo has a tough task ahead of him. The Bulls have had a few peaks of success, but this is usually one of the most moribund programs in the FBS.
They went 3-9 last season and finished 119th in SP+. Head coach Mo Linguist bounced to be co-defensive coordinator on Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama staff.
Lembo inherited one of the worst offenses in the nation and a very thin quarterback room. C.J. Ogbonna is the quarterback; he was mostly used as a gadget runner last season, having his number called on designed runs on 51 of his 130 snaps in 2023.
Now he's the Bulls’ full time quarterback, and he completed only 58% of his passes last week against FCS Lafayette for a 14.2 QBR (121st in the nation after the first week). For his career, he has 21 big time throws to 18 turnover worthy plays.
The defense might be middle of the pack in the MAC. It finished 87th in the nation in SP+ last year, in line with its conference peers, but that's not good enough against a quality Mizzou attack.
The Bulls did slow down big pass attacks last year, finishing top-10 in preventing passing explosives. Unfortunately, that’s not really a part of Missouri’s game – the Tigers are built on efficiency.
Lembo is known as one of the best special teams coordinators in the sport, but his expert tutelage hasn't yet sunk in. The Bulls graded a poor 51.2 on special teams, according to PFF grading; an EPA measurement of their performance says the special teams finished at -6.22 EPA in Week 1.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: Balanced Unit
Drinkwitz’s club broke through last year, and the Tigers appear loaded this season, too. They’ve crept up to seventh in SP+.
They slammed the door shut against Murray State last week, scoring a rushing, a passing and a defensive touchdown within the first six minutes.
Brady Cook is their starting quarterback for a third season; last year he threw 23 touchdowns to only six picks while piloting this offense to a top-15 finish in SP+. Most of the major characters returned, including star wideouts Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr.
The backfield of dual Sun Belt super senior transfers Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll combined for an efficient, but short, night against Murray State as the Tigers turned to their backups early.
The Mizzou offense accounted for an astonishing 93% of available yards in Week 1.
The defense was on fire, too, holding the Racers to under 100 yards. The Tigers lost five defensive NFL draft picks but appear to have bolstered their depth with transfers. They should have little trouble against Ogbonna’s arm as the Tigers graded at 90.4 in PFF coverage grading last week.
They'll look to tune up against Ogbonna’s running this weekend as they face higher-caliber players of his style throughout the season; Thomas Castellanos, Jalen Milroe, LaNorris Sellers and Taylen Green all loom on the docket.
Buffalo vs. Missouri Pick & Prediction
Missouri is a massive favorite for a reason. It's a playoff contender, and Buffalo is playing its second game as it embarks on one of the deepest rebuilds of this season.
But Drinkwitz hasn’t covered big numbers in his time at Missouri. He's 2-4 ATS at home as a favorite of three touchdowns or more. In close games, his conservative nature wins out.
The Tigers will dispatch Buffalo easily, but as the lead balloons, Drinkwitz will tend to empty his bench to get reps for his younger players. Backdoor shenanigans can happen with a number this large.
But I trust the Tigers will get to intermission with their foot on the gas. The line is at Missouri -20.5 in the first half at most shops, and that’s my best bet. You can also find it at -18.5.
Pick: Missouri First Half -18.5 (Play to -20.5)
How to Watch Buffalo vs. Missouri
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network+ |
Buffalo vs. Mizzou Betting Trends
- 75% of the bets and 96% of the money is on Missouri to cover the full-game spread against Buffalo.
Buffalo-Mizzou Weather
