Week 4 brings us a big MAC matchup between the Buffalo Bulls (2-1) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (2-0) at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois (ESPN+ at 3:30 p.m. ET).
The Bulls enter this one after a Week 3 blowout win against UMass.
Meanwhile, the Huskies enter following a bye after they spoiled Notre Dame’s home opener the week prior in what was the biggest upset win in college football this season.
Northern Illinois is favored at -13.5 on the spread while the total is set for 43.5. The Huskies are -577 on the moneyline.
Here's my Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois prediction and pick.
Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Odds, Spread, Lines
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -112 | 42.5 -112o / -108u | +390 |
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -108 | 42.5 -112o / -108u | -520 |
- Point Spread: Buffalo +13 (-112) · Northern Illinois -13 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 42.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo +390 · Northern Illinois -520
- Pick: Northern Illinois -13
Buffalo Football vs Northern Illinois Football Preview
Buffalo Football
Pete Lembo leads this Bulls program into DeKalb after coming over from South Carolina this offseason. This will be his first conference game as a head coach in the MAC, so this figures to be an important one for him and his squad.
The Bulls lost some key seniors last season, so they've been hit or miss to start this year as they try to adapt. However, they looked settled in against a weaker Massachusetts team last week.
The Bulls' offense brought in a new quarterback — C.J. Ogbonna — and new lead running back — Jacqez Barksdale — this year. Both were on the team in 2023, so they've waited their turn in this program and are looking to make names for themselves this season.
The Bulls run a heavy dose of run plays to control the clock. They currently sit at 20th in rush play rate, and they won’t plan on changing in this one.
The Bulls approach the run game via committee, throwing fresh bodies at defenses to wear teams down. The only problem is they rank 107th in rush success rate and don't rip off many big plays (69th in rushing explosiveness).
If they're able to find some rushing success, they can burn defenses with the big play through the air (29th in pass explosiveness).
Defensively, the Bulls are allowing 21 points per game through three outings this season. They cleaned up some early-season struggles last week — only allowing three points — but the Huskies provide a bigger challenge than the Minutemen did.
The Bulls allow just under four yards per carry, so they try to force opposing teams to pass more often than they would like to.
The Bulls play a defensive style of loading boxes and keeping everything in front of them, which requires offenses to be consistently good and sustain drives to put up points.
This is evident from their ranking of 23rd in defensive explosiveness. Now they don’t consistently stop teams, but they play a style that requires teams to come in focused and consistent. That could be a problem for a team that's coming off one of their biggest wins in program history.
Northern Illinois Football
Coach Thomas Hammock and his boys are two weeks removed from adding another boneyard win to the collection in their facility. That victory over Notre Dame was one of the biggest victories in program history.
The question in this one: Can Hammock get his team refocused and locked in for a Bulls team that will challenge you to stick to your game plan and make the proper plays?
This offense is an experienced, old unit, so it should know how to reset and refocus after such a big win, especially with a bye week sandwiched between this game and the last.
The offense is led by quarterback Ethan Hampton, who's in his junior season, but the real X-factor for the Huskies is their Swiss Army knife running back, Antario Brown.
Brown leads the Huskies in rushing yards and receiving yards on the year. It's no secret he's the best player on this offense, given the Huskies rank 16th in run play rate and 13th in rush success rate.
They wear teams down — similar to the Bulls — and control the clock. The difference between the Bulls and Huskies is that Hampton has proven to be an effective and explosive passer, helping NIU to a fourth-place ranking in pass success rate and a 14th-place ranking in explosiveness.
The Huskies should be able to put up points in this one as the better offense.
The key to this point for this Huskies defense has been staying fresh and off the field. This defense has proven a solid unit for Hammock’s team, ranking ninth in defensive success rate and ninth in Havoc.
This unit loves playing for Coach Hammock, and the players fly around and make plays for their coach.
Because of this aggressive and attacking defense, the Huskies are susceptible to allowing the home run play on the ground if they jump in the wrong hole (120th in rush defense explosiveness).
This defense is talented enough and will understand the Bulls' desire to run the ball, so I expect the Huskies to slow down the Buffalo attack.
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Northern Illinois match up statistically:
Buffalo Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 128 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 71 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 59 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 38 | |
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 92 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 76 |  |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 44 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 31 | 87 |
| PFF Coverage | 8 | 44 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 104 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 105 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (53) | 29.4 (109) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (20) | 64% (17) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Prediction
Buffalo’s offense seems to be very one dimensional this season. The Bulls have an array of running backs to attack the Huskies, but this Northern Illinois defense is better than expected going into the season.
I think Brown and this older offensive unit will prove to be too much for a Buffalo defense that's struggled against teams with their offensive identities figured out.
I expect the Huskies and Brown to roll at home this week despite the big win hangover they may have had from two weeks ago.
Give me the Huskies -14.
Pick: Northern Illinois -13
How to Watch Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, Illinois |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo Betting Trends
- 61% of the bets are on Buffalo to cover the spread against Northern Illinois on Saturday.
- 90% of the money is on Buffalo to cover the spread against Northern Illinois on Saturday.
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo Weather
