The BYU Cougars (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) face the Colorado Buffaloes (9-2, 7-2 Big 12) in the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
This all-Big 12 Alamo Bowl is set to feature two rosters that are expected to have full participation from an opt-out and transfer portal perspective.
Colorado beat oddsmakers' expectations of a 5.5-win season, finishing 9-3 and in the thick of the conference championship race.
Head coach Deion Sanders was successful in combing the transfer portal for a second season while also replacing the defensive staff. With a Heisman Trophy winner and future NFL quarterback making plans for San Antonio, the Buffaloes have a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 2016.
Despite being conference opponents, BYU has not faced Colorado since the 1988 season. Head coach Kilani Sitake had a renaissance in 2024, doubling the win total from 2023 to a 10-2 season.
Colorado enters as a -3.5 favorite with the over/under set at 54.5.
Let's dive into my BYU vs. Colorado predictions and college football picks for the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
BYU Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes Prediction, Picks
- BYU vs. Colorado Pick: Under 55
My Colorado vs. BYU best bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
BYU vs Colorado Odds, Spread, Lines
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 54.5 -115 / -105 | +135 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 54.5 -115 / -105 | -165 |
- BYU vs Colorado Spread: BYU +3 · Colorado -3
- BYU vs Colorado Over/Under: 54.5
- BYU vs Colorado Moneyline: BYU ML +135 · Colorado ML -165
BYU vs Colorado Alamo Bowl Betting Preview
BYU Cougars Betting Preview: Set for Big 12 Bowl Battle
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff struggled to find accuracy despite high marks in explosives. The sophomore finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, leading a BYU offense that sits outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate.
Retzlaff finished the season 77th in on-target rate, a measurement of accuracy in hitting pass-catchers in stride.
Wide receivers Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts both worked out wide and in the slot, combining for eight touchdowns on 154 targets this season.
This was a dime by Jake Retzlaff pic.twitter.com/mxGNSTkywR
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐥𝐞 (@AlcazarOfGrief) October 18, 2024
The BYU defense was elite in creating contested catches in 2024, finishing second overall in FBS with a mix of Cover 1, Cover 3 and man coverage.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill's nickel defense finished top-25 in Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass EPA allowed.
Where the Cougars ran into trouble was against the rush, finishing outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency and second-level tackling against opposing running backs.
Fundamentals were a consistent issue with BYU, which finished outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed.
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview: Hunter, Sanders Back At It
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders raised his level of play in passing attempts from his first season in Boulder. Sanders ended the season with 25 big time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays, lowering his mistake rate to just 1.1% on 458 pass attempts.
The future NFL quarterback ended the season 11th in on-target rate, utilizing Heisman winner Travis Hunter on 115 targets. Although Hunter played both sides of the ball, the wide receiver averaged an explosive 2.5 yards per route run on offense.
And with the first pick in the NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select Travis Hunter@CUBuffsFootball | #GoBuffspic.twitter.com/alSbLtgTTl
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) August 30, 2024
The biggest improvement came on the defensive side of the ball, as Colorado beefed up its defensive line under new coordinator Robert Livingston.
The 3-3-5 scheme finished 13th in Havoc, a product of a top-15 coverage unit and a top-15 number in sacks.
Livingston runs one of the heaviest amounts of man coverage, a 50% rate shared with Cover 1.
The Buffaloes made massive improvements when opponents reached scoring position, allowing just 3.4 points on 64 drives that crossed the Colorado 40-yard line.
BYU vs Colorado Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Colorado match up statistically:
BYU Offense vs. Colorado Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 41 |  |
| Pass Success | 57 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 30 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 35 | |
Colorado Offense vs. BYU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 55 | 42 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 103 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 56 | 11 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 9 | 95 |
| Middle 8 | 22 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.9 (116) | 26.0 (50) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (63) | 41% (132) |
How to Bet My BYU vs Colorado Pick
The biggest handicap is simply identifying full participation of both rosters, particularly that of Colorado with Sanders and Hunter expected to head to the NFL.
The Buffaloes' passing offense is dead even in the analytics with the Cougars' secondary.
BYU's rank of second in contested catches will be key considering its poor pass rush rank.
Colorado is not expected to get any push in the rushing attack with a Line Yards rank in the bottom 25 of FBS, putting this game on the arm of Sanders and a slew of explosive targets.
There are similar advantages for the Colorado secondary with man coverage against Retzlaff. The quarterback has a mid-FBS Success Rate of 49% against all Colorado coverage packages, as no explosives are expected against Cover 1.
BYU running back LJ Martin led the rushing attack behind an offensive line that finished inside the top 40 in terms of efficiency and Line Yards. There are minor advantages for BYU when it comes to creating Quality Drives, but execution in the red zone has been a consistent issue.
Action Network projects the Alamo Bowl at Colorado -4 with the assumption of full roster participation for both sides. However, the better wager would come on a total that's dipping in the market.
Both quarterbacks will lead passing offenses straight into the best features of the opposing defenses. While BYU has the better rushing offense, the Cougars rank 96th in red-zone touchdown rate.
Pick: Under 55 (-120 or Better)
BYU vs Colorado Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Location, Streaming
| Location: | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
BYU takes on Colorado in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Saturday, Dec. 28 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
BYU vs Colorado Betting Trends
BYU vs Colorado Weather
