Last week’s SGP may not have worked out the way we were hoping, but nonetheless, the Kansas State vs. Colorado game was pure poetry.
In Week 8, we have ourselves a battle between Big 12 programs as the Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-3) visit the 13th-ranked BYU Cougars (6-0).
The Cowboys are in a bit of disarray right now, considering the goal was to win the Big 12 this season. However, with Alan Bowman not being able to lead them to victory and Ollie Gordon II struggling mightily, the goal is now to finish the season strong.
Big 12 play has been awfully kind to the Cougars this season. They had a rough initiation last season, going 5-7, but there’s a lot of hope building in Provo. Jake Retzlaff has led this program to an incredible start in hopes of its first undefeated season since 1984.
So, let's dive in and see where the betting value lies in this BYU vs. Oklahoma State same game parlay that's priced at +849.
BYU vs. Oklahoma State Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
BYU vs. Oklahoma State Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Oklahoma State +9.5 (-112)
- Under 52.5 (-110)
- Ollie Gordon Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Jake Retzlaff Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Parlay Odds: +849
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: Oklahoma State +9.5
Let’s just get this out of the way quickly – I think BYU wins this game.
I think 9.5 is an outrageous number for this matchup. Oklahoma State may be struggling, but I don’t think it’s that bad. Bowman is a bit of a wild card, Gordon had an astounding season last year and De’Zhaun Stribling is a player who more people should get accustomed to.
To that end, the Cowboys do a great job at pass protection, as Oklahoma State allows a daunting 0.6 sacks per game.
BYU’s defense may be among the best in the FBS, but it only averages 1.8 sacks per game. Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker will do their best to create problems, but in the end, I think Oklahoma State’s offensive line prevails.
Over/Under: Under 52.5
BYU, for the most part, has hit the over this season, but Oklahoma State has hit the under a whopping 67% of the time.
The Cowboys have done an incredible job at limiting chances for their opponents. They’re seventh in Points Per Opportunity and have maintained a consistent defense, stopping both the run and the pass.
Retzlaff has never been one to throw for distance, and Oklahoma State has done a solid job at limiting opposing quarterbacks. The Cougars’ run game is also lacking, as Retzlaff leads the team in rushing yards.
Speaking of the run game, how's the state of the Oklahoma State's?
Oklahoma State Player Prop: Ollie Gordon Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
After last season, this type of performance was completely off my radar. I expected programs to catch up to Gordon’s abilities, but I didn’t expect this.
Last season, Gordon registered nine games with over 100 yards rushing, including five games with over 160 yards.
This season, he's gone over 100 yards once, in Week 1. Since then, he’s averaged 51.6 yards per game. That’s an insane disparity from what we’re used to seeing.
Additionally, Gordon suffered a knee injury during Oklahoma State's game against West Virginia.
Luckily, he had a bye week to recover, but I believe that’s a bad sign for the running back.
BYU Player Prop: Jake Retzlaff Under 239.5 Passing Yards
I like Retzlaff, and I'm encouraged by what he’s been able to do to help BYU achieve an incredible start in its second Big 12 season.
I mentioned before that Retzlaff doesn’t throw for distance often. I consider him more of an efficient passer than an explosive passer.
He’s helped this program with his ability to scramble during a broken play, as well as being able to find the perfect pass. He’s only thrown for over 239.5 yards twice in his FBS career.
Additionally, Oklahoma State’s pass defense is solid. In Passing Down Success Rate allowed, the Cowboys are ranked 42nd. They're even better in Passing Play Success Rate allowed (26th).
I think it’s the perfect storm for Retzlaff to hit the under here.
