Florida State and California meet on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) for the first time on the gridiron as ACC foes.
The Seminoles have had a disastrous start to the season, losing their first three games after finishing the regular season undefeated in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Bears enter the contest with a perfect 3-0 mark and are looking for their first ACC victory.
The Noles are favored by 2.5 points on the spread while the total sits at 44.5. Florida State is also -135 on the moneyline.
This may not be a game that jumps off the page with star power, but it's now crucial for both schools in Week 4. Here's my Cal vs Florida State prediction and college football Week 4 picks.
Cal vs Florida State Odds, Spread, Pick
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- Point Spread: Cal +2.5 (-110) · Florida State -2.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 44.5
- Moneyline: Cal +120 · Florida State -140
- Best Bet: Cal +2.5
Cal Football vs Florida State Football Prediction
Cal Football
For the first time since 1886, Cal will play a conference football game outside of the Pac-12. It will also be one of the program’s longest road trips of the year.
This will be just the third time in seven-plus seasons under coach Justin Wilcox that the Bears will be playing in the Eastern time zone. They also have another trip to Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to face Wake Forest later in the year.
Luckily for Wilcox, his squad has already had one long away game: Cal upset Auburn in Week 2. The key to the victory was the opportunistic defense, the story of the year through three games.
In the win, Wilcox’s defense registered four interceptions, and this is the same unit that leads the nation with nine. The Bears are also tied for the lead in takeaways and second in the country in turnover margin (+8).
On offense, California deploys a great running back duo behind Jaydn Ott and Jaivian Thomas. These two will need another big performance for the perfect season to continue.
Florida State Football
To summarize how terrible this start has been for Florida State, the front page of the school’s weekly game notes for the media highlights some numbers to know. For this game, one of the four numbers was that FSU’s punter leads the country in yards per punt.
Even the most loyal Seminole fans had to expect a drop this season, especially with all of the players lost in the offseason.
Head coach Mike Norvell was tasked with replacing the ACC Player of the Year at quarterback, an NFL running back and the team’s top three receivers on offense. The defense also lost five starters from a strong unit in 2023.
Of the three losses so far, Norvell's last one against Memphis had to sting the most. For starters, it was his previous school, and the university paid the Tigers a hefty fee to play in the nonconference game.
It is difficult to see how the program will get back on track, but this is a perfect time to find a way to turn things around.
Cal vs Florida State Prediction
At some point, you have to believe that Florida State will find a way to pick up a victory this season.
This may be the spot, but I can only bet the other side in this matchup.
My best bet is to take California on the spread of +2.5. I would hold out for a +3 or take the underdog on the moneyline if the spread falls lower than the current price.
Ultimately, this handicap comes down to who I trust more to capitalize on each team's limited opportunities to score points. The key judge is points per opportunity, and the Bears have a clear advantage.
On the season, FSU ranks in the bottom 20 among Power 4 programs on both sides of the ball. If the Seminoles gift the Bears great field position with a turnover, they will be punished.
Meanwhile, I also struggle to see how Florida State slows Cal’s rushing attack. The defense allowed over 450 yards combined on the ground against Boston College and Georgia Tech.
Until Norvell can figure out the issues at stopping the run, I can’t back them against many teams. So, I’ll continue to fade the Noles here in California’s debut in the ACC.
Pick: Cal +2.5
How to Watch Cal vs Florida State Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Florida State vs Cal Betting Trends
- Cal is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
- Florida State is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS, losing all three games outright as favorites.
- Both teams are a combined 5-0 to the under.
Florida State vs Cal Weather
