College Football Picks, Noon Best Bets
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Another beautiful college football Saturday is upon us. Can you believe it's already Week 9?
Our staff of college football betting experts has cooked up three noon best bets and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26, including sides for Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss and Notre Dame vs. Navy, alongside a total in Tulane vs. North Texas.
Read on for our three college football best bets, picks and predictions for Week 9's noon slate.
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Tulane vs. North Texas Best Bet
If you look up “half team” in the sports gambling dictionary, you’ll find the 2024 North Texas Mean Green team picture.
The Mean Green rank top-six nationally in points per game and total offense. They’re also bottom-10 in points per game and total offense allowed.
Big plays will be on the menu against Tulane because UNT generates and allows 30-plus-yard plays left and right. Mean Green games have featured 44 plays of 30-plus yards, the second-most in the country.
Pepper in UNT’s lightning-quick tempo – 21.3 seconds between plays – and it’s easy to understand why oddsmakers can’t seem to make these totals high enough.
When facing FBS opponents, North Texas overs are 6-0, breezing past the closing total by an average of 17 points per game.
Now, nailing down Tulane’s offense has been a bit difficult. It’s been dynamic at times, but consistency has been beyond the Green Wave’s grasp.
The key has been pass protection. When protected, Darian Mensah has produced two games of 325-plus passing yards and multiple touchdowns. His issue is pressure handling pressure. When the Red Raiders protect him, the offense’s ceiling is nearly limitless.
In the four games in which he’s faced seven or fewer pressures, the offense averaged 52 points per game.
He faced an average of 14 pressures in the other three games, and the scoring dipped to 23 points per game.
Here’s the good news: UNT can’t rush the passer a lick, ranking 132nd nationally in PFF's Pass Rush grades.
Tulane scored 71 against UAB earlier this season, and while I’m not calling for it to top this, it’ll flirt with 50 on its own in this shootout.
Pick: Over 68.5 (Play to 70)
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Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Best Bet
Oklahoma survived a nonconference slate that nearly saw an upset at home by Houston. Offensive issues have continued through the SEC opener, as OU has generated one of the worst Success Rates on the ground and through the air.
The defense has carried the team through the conference slate, needing a pick-six — a big Havoc play — at Auburn to pick up its only conference victory of the season.
Offensively, injuries have mounted at the wide receiver position, and the offensive line continues to fail to generate a push in the trench. While the offense has given away the ball 20 times this season, the defense is responsible for a +6 mark in net turnover margin.
Oklahoma ranks 127th nationally in Havoc Allowed offensively thanks to several critical data points.
The Sooners allow eight tackles for loss per game, while their 14 fumbles on the season are nearly the most in all of FBS.
It doesn't matter if the quarterback has been Michael Hawkins Jr. or Jackson Arnold — 25-of-125 passing attempts have ended with a contested catch.
Ole Miss — the top-ranked Defensive Havoc team in the nation — will play host to Oklahoma in Week 9.
The Rebels create some form of Havoc on 24% of snaps against opposing offenses. Only Duke has more tackles for loss than an Ole Miss team that averages 9.6 per game.
One category where head coach Lane Kiffin does not trail is pass breakups, as Ole Miss leads the nation with 41 on the season.
To make matters even worse, Oklahoma will be playing under new management, with offensive coordinator Seth Littrell getting fired this week.
The Sooners defense will be expected to lead the way to pull off the near-three-touchdown upset in Oxford.
However, Ole Miss plays with one of the fastest tempos in the nation, which has led to an overall Success Rate that ranks in the top 10 nationally.
Oklahoma’s remaining healthy players and a makeshift offensive staff will likely have trouble keeping up with the Rebels' efficient and explosive offense.
Pick: Ole Miss -20 (Play to -20.5)
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Notre Dame vs. Navy Best Bet
Navy being 6-0 is a real accomplishment.
But context is important.
The win over Memphis was tremendous. Their other victories have come over Bucknell, Temple, Memphis, UAB, Air Force and Charlotte. The combined record of the four FBS teams is 7-21, and the Bison are 3-6 in FCS play.
The Mids rank in the bottom 20 nationally in strength of schedule.
On the other hand, the Irish have won five straight since that grotesque loss against Northern Illinois. Their win over Texas A&M looks much better in hindsight, given the Aggies might be the SEC’s best team.
Navy is good. But it hasn’t played a truly elite team yet, and the squad’s lack of athleticism and talent is bound to catch up.
I think this is the week it happens.
The most significant schematic mismatch is between Notre Dame’s rush attack and Navy’s front seven.
The Irish rank second nationally in Rush Explosiveness and 20th in EPA per Rush. Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love have combined for over 900 rushing yards at over six yards per carry. The team averages over 200 yards and three scores per game on the ground.
Conversely, Navy ranks 98th in EPA per Rush allowed and 69th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. The front seven ranks among the bottom 10 FBS teams in Defensive Line Yards and the bottom 30 in Stuff rate. They can’t stop anyone in short-yardage situations, ranking outside the top 100 in third and fourth down conversion rate allowed (46%).
Specifically, the Midshipmen consistently get gashed by inside zone concepts, the bread and butter of Notre Dame’s rushing attack. The Irish should move the ball at will, generating quality drive after quality drive.
While Navy’s new-look, more modern offense looks unstoppable with Blake Horvath, it’s easy to set up explosive chunk passing plays after quickly establishing the triple-option against sub-par rush defenses. By EPA per Rush allowed, Navy’s past FBS opponents rank (nationally):
- Temple: 91st
- Memphis: 38th
- UAB: 120th
- Air Force: 74th
- Charlotte: 104th
The Irish rank in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed. Linebackers Jack Kiser and Drayk Bowem have missed three tackles all season.
It’ll be tough for Navy to grind out four-to-five-yard rushes.
For what it’s worth, Notre Dame beat Navy 42-3 last year by holding Alex Tecza, Daba Fofana and Brandon Chatman – this year’s three leading non-quarterback rushers – to a combined 124 yards on 33 attempts, suitable for 3.7 yards per carry.
That means Horvath won’t be throwing overloaded boxes to receivers in one-on-one man coverage. He likely won’t see any wide-open receivers, considering Notre Dame ranks fourth nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades.
I’m banking on the ship sinking this Saturday.
Pick: Notre Dame -13.5 (-110)
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