Week 4 of the college football season has some massive games, including USC vs. Michigan, Tennessee vs. Oklahoma and Utah vs. Oklahoma State.
From a total perspective, we now have enough data on each team to create a base of what their pace is going to be this year. That should help us attack the market with even more efficiency.
Welcome to our Week 4 Pace Report, where we'll focus on the aforementioned USC vs. Michigan, Purdue vs. Oregon State and Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville State.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 3.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 4 off with three totals to target.
Week 4 College Football Picks
Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State Picks, Odds
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Here's an important item to remember when betting totals: just because a team plays fast doesn't mean it's automatically going to hit the over.
Ever since they made the switch from FCS to FBS, the Gamecocks have been one of the fastest-paced teams in the country. This season, they're averaging a play every 20.5 seconds, which is second-fastest in the country.
However, their offense has been terrible. Jacksonville State ranks 102nd in Success Rate because it simply can't run the football. It also sits outside the top 100 in every single rushing metric to boot.
The Gamecocks lost their top two backs from last season, and Ron Wiggins — who was supposed to be the starter coming into the season — has a toe injury that will keep him out until mid-November.
On top of that, Jacksonville State brought back just three starters from an offensive line that ranked 99th in both Stuff Rate Allowed and Offensive Line Yards in 2023.
The other problem for Jacksonville State is that starting quarterback Logan Smothers is hurt and seemingly not going to play in this game. That means that Tyler Huff will start his second straight game.
Rich Rodriguez said he feels good with Tyler Huff in the system, even though he's still learning the system.
He added that Logan Smothers is getting healthier.
— Thomas Ashworth (@ThomasAshworth0) September 17, 2024
Huff has put up solid numbers in his last two starts against Louisville and Eastern Michigan, but he already has six turnover-worthy plays to his name. That's not great for a Jacksonville State team that can't run the ball and is now putting all the pressure on its quarterback.
While Jacksonville State wants to play fast, Southern Miss wants to do the opposite. The Golden Eagles are running a play every 29.3 seconds, which is outside the top 100 nationally.
The offense didn't have really any prospects of being good this season considering it lost a lot of production from last year with only four returning starters.
Tate Rodemaker transferred in from Florida State, but he wasn't effective at all in his limited playing time last season. He started the final game of the regular season against Florida and was terrible, going 12-of-25 for just 134 yards.
He also underperformed in the Golden Eagles' two games against FBS opponents this season, throwing for a combined 244 passing yards. That's particularly concerning when Southern Miss is throwing the ball on almost 59% of offensive plays.
Southern Miss also hasn't run the ball effectively, as top back Rodrigues Clark has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry behind an offensive line that brought back one starter.
I only have 54.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 61.5 points
Pick: Under 61.5 (BetMGM)
USC vs Michigan Picks, Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +188 |
This is an ugly over, but the total is too low.
USC downed LSU, 27-20, in its season opener and then shut out Utah State, 48-0, in Week 2. The Trojans are coming off a bye, and the offense doesn't look it's dropped off at all from last season.
Quarterback Miller Moss has been amazing in his first two games, putting up a PFF passing grade of 90.1 while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.
What makes him so good is that he doesn't flinch under pressure. He holds a passing grade of 85.1 with a crowded pocket, according to PFF.
USC once again has a couple of really talented receivers as well, so Moss and Co. should still move the ball through the air against a solid Michigan secondary.
One thing that always rings true under USC head coach Lincoln Riley is that his offenses are going to play fast. The Trojans are averaging 26 seconds per play this season. While that mark is slower than last year, it's only because they blew out Utah State in Week 2 and were trying to let the clock run out.
On the other side, the Wolverines couldn't do anything against Texas offensively and showed how limited they are with their quarterback situation.
Davis Warren was picked off three times last weekend against Arkansas State, prompting a quarterback change this week.
However, Michigan still ran the ball effectively, averaging 6.8 yards per carry as a team. Even with that bad game against Texas, Michigan still ranks top-50 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
USC also hasn't done a great job of stopping the run. The top backs from LSU and Utah State both averaged over six yards per carry against the Trojans, who rank 65th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn will eventually get this defense to play to its talent level, but right now, it just needs to prevent teams from ripping off big plays. Even with the shake-up on the staff, the Trojans sit outside the top 100 in explosiveness allowed.
I have 54.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 45.5 points.
Pick: Over 45.5 (FanDuel)
Purdue vs Oregon State Picks, Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +158 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -192 |
There were big question marks surrounding Purdue's defensive front going into the game against Notre Dame, and the Fighting Irish completely ran the Boilermakers over.
Purdue head coach Ryan Walters had a good run defense last year but is now relying primarily on transfers up front. That led to the Fighting Irish lighting the defense up for 364 yards and 8.5 yards per carry.
In fact, both Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love ran for over 100 yards.
That's terrible news for Purdue with a game against Oregon State coming up.
Oregon State has run the ball on 55% of its offensive plays so far this season. Essentially, nothing has changed with new offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson now in charge of the offense.
There are a lot of changes for the Beavers on the offensive side of the ball. They basically have an entirely new offense from a personnel perspective, but they've still been pretty efficient thus far.
Even with a completely new offensive line, they still rank inside the top 2o in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed, which is paramount for a team that prides itself on running the ball.
Anthony Hankerson transferred in from Colorado after a poor season behind a bad offensive line in Boulder. He's been much better this season, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and 10% of his runs have gone for 10 yards or more.
Oregon State really should have a lot of success on the ground this week against a weak Purdue front seven.
Offensively, the Boilermakers should find more success against the Beavers after being entirely shut down by Notre Dame last week.
Oregon State returned just one starter on the defensive side of the ball, and that unit has struggled out of the gate. Oregon put 49 points up against the Beavers because they ran the ball for 7.5 yards per carry.
It's hard to find bright spots from Purdue's 66-7 loss to the Fighting Irish, but running back Reggie Love III did run for 6.1 yards per carry. On top of that, Purdue has an incredibly experienced offensive line that returns four starters and 165 career starts.
Through three games, Oregon State ranks 124th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 98th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so Purdue should be able to run the ball with a lot of success on Saturday night.
I think 50 points is really low for two offenses that have major advantages against defenses that got run all over last week. So, I'll take the over here.
Pick: Over 50 (bet365)
